Thursday 1 June 2023
It was a lively end to the month with Fed speakers putting the skids under the Greenback for a while on hike-pausing/skipping comments but US JOLTS data giving it a lift all wrapped up in the final knockings of the re-balancing flows and a roller-coaster ride was had. US government suspension of its USD C. 31trln debt ceiling was by approved by the House of Reps as expected and now awaits a vote in the Senate.
Canadian GDP came in better than expected raising hopes for a hike next week while firmer Chinese Caixin data overnight has contrasted with yesterday;s weaker PMIs and risk appetite is a little firmer again this morning as I type.
Equities are moving higher after yesterday's fun and games amid the fragile risk sentiment but WTI has capped at $69.00-50 now amid the ongoing global economic growth concerns but holding $67.00-50 this time so far in the extended retreat. Gold capping above $1965 again as the natural sellers and firmer risk tones continue to weigh but trading tightly to hold $1950 support as the jury remains out. Increasing tensions in the Ukraine/Russia war continue to be the elephant in the room along with US/China tensions as the world remains a fragile place. Serbian unrest adding to the uncertain picture too.
GBPUSD: Failure at 1.2450 again after yesterday's hold of 1.2350 and some re-sells duly placed. I remain a rally seller. EURGBP supply and now some GBPJPY demand helping to support around 1.2390-00 where we also have some option expiry interest today. EURGBP: Capping at 0.8610-20 this time as the supply continues amid generally weaker EUR tones but support coming in at 0.8585 albeit looking soggy still for the moment as I warned again yesterday. GBPJPY: Capping at 173.80 this morning after a good hold of 172.80-00. Sellers ever-poised when risk appetite softens but some demand expected too for the moment as core pairs find dip demand.
EURUSD: Capping around 1.0700 now after holding 1.0630 in yesterday's extended retreat amid general EUR supply. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. Options in play today and tomorrow again. USDJPY: Looking underpinned overall amid the general USD demand but another extended retreat yesterday before finding support around 139.00. I still prefer to sell rallies/be long JPY overall.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and mentoring available from mike@mspfx.co.uk
SubjectThe MSP UpdateFrommike@mspfx.co.uk
ToMikeDateToday 09:58
Thursday 1 June 2023 All aboard the roller coaster again It was a lively end to the month with Fed speakers putting the skids under the Greenback for a while on hike-pausing/skipping comments but US JOLTS data giving it a lift all wrapped up in the final knockings of the re-balancing flows and a roller-coaster ride was had. US government suspension of its USD C. 31trln debt ceiling was by approved by the House of Reps as expected and now awaits a vote in the Senate. Canadian GDP came in better than expected raising hopes for a hike next week while firmer Chinese Caixin data overnight has contrasted with yesterday;s weaker PMIs and risk appetite is a little firmer again this morning as I type. Equities are moving higher after yesterday's fun and games amid the fragile risk sentiment but WTI has capped at $69.00-50 now amid the ongoing global economic growth concerns but holding $67.00-50 this time so far in the extended retreat. Gold capping above $1965 again as the natural sellers and firmer risk tones continue to weigh but trading tightly to hold $1950 support as the jury remains out. Increasing tensions in the Ukraine/Russia war continue to be the elephant in the room along with US/China tensions as the world remains a fragile place. Serbian unrest adding to the uncertain picture too. GBPUSD: Failure at 1.2450 again after yesterday's hold of 1.2350 and some re-sells duly placed. I remain a rally seller. EURGBP supply and now some GBPJPY demand helping to support around 1.2390-00 where we also have some option expiry interest today. EURGBP: Capping at 0.8610-20 this time as the supply continues amid generally weaker EUR tones but support coming in at 0.8585 albeit looking soggy still for the moment as I warned again yesterday. GBPJPY: Capping at 173.80 this morning after a good hold of 172.80-00. Sellers ever-poised when risk appetite softens but some demand expected too for the moment as core pairs find dip demand. EURUSD: Capping around 1.0700 now after holding 1.0630 in yesterday's extended retreat amid general EUR supply. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. Options in play today and tomorrow again. USDJPY: Looking underpinned overall amid the general USD demand but another extended retreat yesterday before finding support around 139.00. I still prefer to sell rallies/be long JPY overall. EURJPY: Holding 148.60 helped by firmer risk tones/JPY supply in the latest dip but sellers poised 149.60-80. USDCHF: Fnding support at 0.9100 this time amid the general USD demand and soggy EURUSD after failing at 0.9150 as the jury remains out. I prefer the rally-sell as my preferred side overall but good two-way business expected still. EURCHF: Holding 0.9700 again as USDCHF rally outstrips EURUSD retreat but capping above 0.9750 as the two-way business continues. AUDUSD: Still looking soggy amid the general USD demand but holding 0.6485 this time albeit capping at 0.6520 post-stronger Chinese data rally. Some pips banked in the retreat again and I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall. Keeping an eye on AUD crosses as always. GBPAUD: Underpinned stll for the moment as AUDUSD retreat outstips GBPUSD amid the variable USD and we're now trading 1.9060-1.9180. NZDUSD: Capping at 0.6030 amid the USD demand after a hold of 0.5985 yesterday but still soggy overall. GBPNZD: Similar underpinned pattern to GBPAUD in a range of 2.0650-2.0750 atm as core pairs both fluctuate. USDCAD: Finding support between 1.3560 now helped by the firmer USD/softer oil double whammy after yesterday's retreat from 1.3630 after the stronger GDP data sparked BOC hike talk.Expect more two-way business overall. Let's continue to be careful out there. Interbank rates: 08.45 BST GBPUSD 1.2405 EURUSD 1.0666 EURGBP 0.8600 GBPEUR 1.1627 USDJPY 139.85 GBPJPY 173.44 GBPCAD 1.6852 GBPCHF 1.1314 GBPZAR 24.6425 GBPHKD 9.6674 USDCHF 0.9107 EURCHF 0.9715 EURHKD 8.3154 AUDUSD 0.6491 NZDUSD 0.5995 USDCAD 1.3583
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