Monday 3 May 2021
It's a holiday here today in the UK and I shall be spending some time with my family but meanwhile here's my update to hopefully set you up for the hours ahead.
Friday certainly didn't bring any month-end USD supply as the bank signals had indicated. Possibly it was done on Thursday amid the JPY supply lifting core pairs too on better risk sentiment, and so far today we're seeing that again as the European session gets underway.
Fed's Powell speaking at 18.20 GMT and prior to that we have the latest USA ISM data at 14.00 GMT.
Jury still definitely out on the Greenback so, as always in these fickle times, be careful with your trading. Pick your preferred entry/exit levels and don't be greedy or over-analyze. Patience a virtue too of course.
GBPUSD: A good cap at 1.3920 on Friday but equally a a solid hold of 1.3800 and pips banked in the retreat but sadly little rally-sell opportunity given the lack of USD EOM supply. Some good support this morning from risk-on GBPJPY supply but poised to re-sell if 1.3850-60 caps.EURGBP: Broke up through 0.8710 finally but finding those solid offers at 25-30 at step too far again and delicately poised still as core pairs continue to range.GBPJPY: That base at 151.30 gave way only to run in sold support at a previous line of 150.80. Underpinned core pairs still but rally sellers ever poised amdist the variable/fragile risk sentiment.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but still not getting over greedy with expectation on the retreats. Caution advised still as equally a case for buying dips still atm.
EURUSD: 1.2050-60 finally broke on Friday and some pips banked in the retreat into 1.2020-30 as per my tweet with further support at 1.2000 notable.USDJPY: 108.70-8 duly held again on Friday and a break above 109.30 triggering more upside momentum spurred by better risk tones to now post 109.65.EURJPY: A decent retreat on Friday as EURUSD broke lower but duly holding 131.40-50 and now testing 132.00 as risk sentiment firms and EURUSD finds dip demand too.USDCHF: Still holding 0.9080 which I was highlighting last week as EURUSD retreated but rallies still tempered by EURCHF failing at 1.1000 but with the SNB ever watchful and ready to help. EURCHF: Holding 1.0960 so far but equally failing at 1.1000
AUDUSD: Capped around 0.7780 then 0.7760 on Friday but once again finding support at 0.7700 helped by the AUDJPY demand around 84.20 and now testing 84.75. USDCAD: Capped at 1.2320 again but holding 1.2265-70 again amid the fimer USD tones. Some CADJPY demand helping to cap rallies.
My beloved Southend United won on Saturday but sadly other results didn't go our way and we have been duly relegated from the football league for the first time since we joined 101 years ago. A sad day and questions need to br answered but the rebuilding now needs to begin.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Have a good week everyone.
Interbank rates: 08.17 BST
GBPUSD 1.3842
EURUSD 1.2039
EURGBP 0.8696
GBPEUR 1.1497
GBPAUD 1.7911
GBPCAD 1.7017
GBPJPY 151.67
GBPZAR 151.80
GBPHKD 10.7302
USDJPY 109.54
USDZAR 14.4553
EURJPY 131.91
EURCHF 1.0981
EURHKD 9.3306
AUDUSD 0.7729
USDCAD 1.2295
USDCHF 0.9122
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