Monday 30 October 2023
We've seen some softer risk appetite again amid the Middle East back-story with no sign of ceasefire any time soon with the IDF making physical inroads into Gaza but a gradual deployment atm. Some USD supply returning this morning but all tightly bound still as we wait on a raft of Central Bank decisions this week including BOJ, US Fed and BOE. US PCE inflation data on today left hawks disappinted. Lots of ECB speakers ruling out further hikes atm but equally no cuts either.
Equities have been generally softer amid the fragile risk sentiment but a little steadier this morning. WTI rallied from $83.00 on the news that Israel were stepping up operations as I warned here on Friday but capping at $85.50 amid the uncertain global economic picture too and now testing $83.50. Gold has found support around $1980 then $1990 this time but capping at $2010 with natural sellers ever poised still. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension and now with the Middle East sadly to the fore.
GBPUSD: Support forming still between 1.2080-00 amid some USD supply but capping at 1.2160 as we continue to range tightly amongst all the unknowns including the BOE this week. I remain poised for further entries when momentum fades. Options in play today at 1.2145. EURGBP: Holding 0.8690 again then 0.8705 in the latest retreat and now up to 0.8720-30 as we continue to range tightly amid core pair fluctuations. GBPJPY: Holding 180.80 this morning after capping at 182.50 again with sellers ever poised still amid the fragile risk.
EURUSD: Support at 1.0530 again but capping at 1.0600 this time as we continue to range tightly. I remain a rally seller overall. Options in play again. USDJPY: 149.25 the current base after Friday's retreat from 150.50 amid the USD supply and softer risk JPY demand with the market looking a little tired too. MOF/BOJ intervention fears still there above 150.00 too. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.
For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.48 BST
GBPUSD 1.2109
EURUSD 1.0571
EURGBP 0.8724
GBPEUR 1.1460
USDJPY 149.64
GBPJPY 181.28
GBPCAD 1.6772
GBPCHF 1.0952
GBPZAR 22.7495
GBPHKD 9.4337
USDCHF 0.9023
EURCHF 0.9537
EURHKD 8.2318
AUDUSD 0.6362
NZDUSD 0.5829
USDCAD 1.3853
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