Thursday 10 August 2023
No prizes for guessing today#s big event with the keenly awaited US CPI data at 12.30 GMT and we've seen more tight ranging FX business overall in the past 24 hours and risk tones variable as the jury remains out ahead of the inevitable algo knee-jerk it will produce, regardless of how far off expectations it is. Coiled springs tend to act that way...
Equities have rallied off yesterday's lows again adding to a better risk appetite but the second-guessing continues. WTI has found a base this time at $82.50 then $83.50 and now looking to test an old resistance line at $84.50 as we wait on CPI. Gold found support into $1915 this time after yesterday's lower $1925 cap as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail but better risk appetite and natural sellers helping the gradual retreat. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on Ukraine/Russia but also tension in the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2750 yesterday but holding 1.2700-10 as we range tightly ahead of US CPI and now back up through 1.2760 as I type. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. EURGBP: Finding a cap at 0.8640 this time after holding 0.8600-10 then 0.8620-25 (where we also have option interest today) in the retreats this time as EURUSD dip demand outstrips GBPUSD. More two-way expected as core pairs make their mind up. GBPJPY: A good hold of 182.50 yesterday and now up through the decent res/offers at 183.00 amid better risk tones but sellers still lurking amid the mixed risk tones overall.
EURUSD: Holding the old 1.0960 support area this time and now pushing on 1.1020-30 (where we also have decent option interest today in play thru CPI) amid some renewed EURJPY and EURGBP demand as we continue to trade tightly. I prefer the rally-sell side still. USDJPY: Now underpinned at 143.30-50 after yesterday's option-led support at 143.00 but sellers prevailing at 144.00-10 again. I remain a rally seller as preferred side but with patience a virtue as ever. EURJPY: Support at 157.60 now amid core pair dip demand and better risk appetite but sellers prevailing at 158.60 so far. Underpinned overall still but some two-way business expected amid mixed risk tones and core pair flucation
Full report and details of mentoring services available from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.47 BST
GBPUSD 1.2747
EURUSD 1.1009
EURGBP 0.8635
GBPEUR 1.1580
GBPCAD 1.7085
GBPCHF 1.1145
GBPZAR 24.0235
GBPHKD 9.9400
USDJPY 143.82
GBPJPY 183.36
USDCHF 0.8738
EURCHF 0.9621
EURHKD 8.5838
AUDUSD 0.6552
NZDUSD 0.6066
USDCAD 1.3408
Comments