Tuesday 16 May 2023
Soggy data out of China and weaker than expected UK jobs/wages figures has given markets further food for thought this morning and turning risk sentiment a little softer again but FX pairs still ranging overall.
In the US the debt ceiling talks between Biden and Congress resume today following comments from Treasury Secretary Yellen yesterday expressing concern over the downside risks if no suitable deal made. A heap of central bank speakers today to keep in mind too.
Equities are once again off their lows but with sellers poised in the rallies amid the fragile economic backstory with WTI bouncing off $70.80 this time amid some upbeat/hopefuly IEA data as I type after capping into $71.80 amid the ongoing global recession/slowdown fears. Those natural sellers of Gold did indeed prevail again into $2020 again after a good hold of $2000-05 in the latest retreat as the uncertainty continues.Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China/Taiwan tensions in the mix too The world remains a fragile place for sure.
GBPUSD: More caps into 1.2540 before an extended retreat into 1.2465 post-UK jobs/wages data this morning. Back up above 1.2500 again now as we continue to range with some USD supply returning and general GBP dip demand still. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. EURGBP: Capping into 0.8720 this time after the post-data rally from 0.8685 as we continue to range.Expect some two-way business still overall as core pair sentiment flutters around. GBPJPY: Basing around 169.40 this time with GBPUSD bouncing strongly off its lows after a cap at 170.40-60 yesterday and in Asia. Rally sellers ever-poised.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0865 in this morning's retreat amid the USD supply after yesterday's failure into 1.0900 and I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall. USDJPY: Support still coming in at 135.60-80 as I warned yesterday but equally capping 136.25 now as the uncertainty and range trading continue. I still prefer to sell rallies/be long JPY overall but caution still required in these ever-fickle markets as I've been warning.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs from mike@mspfx.co.uk. Mentoring services available too.
Interbank rates: 08.28 BST
GBPUSD 1.2500
EURUSD 1.0886
EURGBP 0.8705
GBPEUR 1.1487
USDJPY 135.87
GBPJPY 169.90
GBPCAD 1.6812
GBPCHF 1.1184
GBPZAR 23.0260
GBPHKD 9.7453
USDCHF 0.8934
EURCHF 0.9727
EURHKD 8.4837
AUDUSD 0.6685
NZDUSD 0.6248
USDCAD 1.3463
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