Tuesday 12 March 2024
The past 24 hours has seen some USD demand return amid higher bond yields as we wait on the key US CPI data at 13.30 GMT and the second-guessing continues. Further chatter from BOJ on guidance as/when they remove YCC initially saw USDJPY in retreat again but dip buyers were lurking.
UK labour report this morning was a little softer than expected albeit under new rules of composition but still saw the Pound fall as a result. The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions are all still casting their own shadow.
Equities fell then rallied yesterday and remain underpinned overall on the firm belief that interest rates will be coming down at some stage soon apart from in Japan ofc. WTI capping at $78.50 again after holding $76.50 this time in the retreat amid the second-guessing on Red Sea/Gaza and global economy. Gold has been trading tightly in consolidation mode between $$2175-85 after the recent sharp rallies but remains underpinned overall on the belief that FOMC will start cutting rates in June.
GBPUSD: Failure around 1.2830 once it broken back down through yesterday amid the USD demand and some GBPJPY selling but holding 1.2775-80 so far post-jobs/wages data. I remain poised for further re-sells when momentum fades as we continue to range overall. EURGBP: Holding 0.8525 as some GBP general supply returned and now looking to test 0.8550 resistance as the BOE/ECB debates continue. GBPJPY: Testing 188.00 in the retreats from 188.75 yesterday amid the JPY demand but some expected dip support helping with rally to 189.20 before retreating to 188.20 again as rollercoaster JPY ride continues with BOJ next week in focus.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0915 but sellers capping at 1.0940 this morning on the USD demand and ECB rate-cut conjecture. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side. USDJPY: Capping at 147.60 in the latest rally after another hold of the decent 146.50-60 support I highlighted here yesterday. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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