Monday 8 August 2022
Friday saw a massive and unexpected increase in US jobs and stronger wages and the Greenback jumped and, well, just kept on going. As inflationary as that data is, and therefore a worry for the Fed, we saw interest rates and US bond yields rise underpinning the USD rally.
Firmer risk sentiment this morning still overall but with equity markets once more off their highs, gold underpinned and oil still looking soggy. Not a lot on the data calendar of real note until the US July inflation reading on Wednesday which of course will be widely anticipated.
GBPUSD: Capped around 1.2150 and fell to test 1.2000 in the extended retreat posr-NFP data before a bounce later in the day but failing into 1.2125 so far this morning. I will stand poised for more of the same as we continue to range.EURGBP: A good hold of 0.8400 but failing at 0.8440-50 again. I still think we'll see two-way pips jobbing opportunity. GBPJPY: A decent rally from 161.50 post-NFP but now capped around 163.80 as the risk jury remains out.
EURUSD: Support at 1.0140 this time post-NFP but currently capping at 1.0210-20 with rally sellers including me still poised. USDJPY: Strong rally from 133.00 post-NFP to take out 134.00 offers/res and just kept going to test 135.00. No knock lower in Asia from the model sellers interestingly and now holding 134.80 in the retreat.EURJPY: Forming a base around 137.00 then 137.30 but capping into 138.00 with sellers poised still whenever risk turns amid general EUR weakness. USDCHF: Capped around 0.9650 post-NFP and in retreat amid some softer USD and EURCHF tones. SNB will be keeping an eye on things as ever
EURCHF: Another hold of 0.9760 with SNB watching/smoothing but testing it again as I type after failing above 0.9800 amid the variable risk and EUR weakness overall.
AUDUSD: Support in at 0.6860 held Friday's fall from 0.6950 but back up there now amid some general commodity currency love, softer USD tones and AUDUJPY demand. GBPAUD capping at 1.7500 again then 1.7450 but holding 1.7350 so far. GBPNZD holding 1.9275 in the latest retreats after capping around 1.9350 again as we range tightly still.USDCAD: Sharp rally from 1.2880-90 post-NFP after holding 1.2860 amid oil price retreat too but back below 1.2900 now as some softer USD sentiment returns. I expect some good two-way business still overall amid the variable risk/oil and USD tones. Option interest in play over next 24 hours too.
Let's continue to be careful out there and a have a good week.
Interbank rates: 08.58 BST
GBPUSD 1.2094
EURUSD 1.0191
EURGBP 0.8424
GBPEUR 1.1868
GBPJPY 163.37
GBPCAD 1.5609
GBPCHF 1.1582
GBPZAR 20.1947
GBPHKD 9.4260
USDJPY 135.00
EURJPY 137.87
EURCHF 0.9768
EURHKD 7.9423
AUDUSD 0.6960
USDCAD 1.2906
USDCHF 0.9584
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