Friday 19 July 2024
From the lows of 155.36 we've seen USDJPY rally to 157.85 leading some general USD demand as US bond yields rose, and commodity currencies came under attack on softer gold and oil. Some JPY demand returning though as equities and risk wobble again in Asia with USDJPY once again leading the way.
It's been a volatile week and the changes in sentiment ever-fickle. Yesterday's ECB meeting delivered little of note as expected with the jury still out on timing of next cut/s and EUR price action around the presser was understandably extremely limited.
This morning's UK Retail Sales report came in softer than expected and has helped provide some further GBP supply. Canadian Retail Sales later with Fed heads Williams and Bostic up to the rostrum at 14.40 and 17.00 GMT respectively.
US and European equity markets have fallen again in Asia and early European trading with rally sellers poised for the moment. WTI held $80.50 before failing at $82.50 again beore testing that support again this morning. Ever fickle for the moment and expected to range still. Gold has retreated further amid some more profit-taking and USD demand but holding $2413 so far.
GBPUSD: Capping into 1.3000 yesterday and a steady fall into 1.2950 amid the USD demand before a further push into 1.2920-25 this morning. More two-way expected amid the USD and cross flow variables. EURGBP: Holding 0.8400-10 but still struggling to get through 0.8420-30 as EURUSD finally plays catch-up in the USD demand-led retreats in core pairs. ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture in play still. GBPJPY: Another volatile 24 hours amid the USDJPY moves and a hold of 202.50-60 before capping at 204.20 with plenty of two-way inbetween and now back down testing 203.00 amid latest risk wobble/JPY demand.
EURUSD: Capping at 1.0940 after going nowhere around ECB but slowly breaking back lower once the large options were out the way around 1.0900 and USD demand returned. USDJPY: Finding a base at 156.00 then 156.50 in yesterday's rally before capping at 157.85 and now in retreat again helped by JPY demand. MOF/BOJ intervention fears remain.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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