Tuesday 12th April 2022
USD demand still notable as we wait on US CPI data later today and USDJPY shrugging off some minimal BOJ verbal intervention. Risk is slightly softer with equities lower this morning but bond selling continues and yields rising still. UK jobs/wages data came in close to expectations but notable that real wage growth understandably lagging behind the surging inflation trend. Rising job vacancies also still concerns me.
Long Easter week-end approaching but a lot of water to pass under the bridge before that with the latest ECB policy announcement on Thursday in the mix too. Meanwhile the atrocities in Ukraine sadly continue.
GBPUSD: Another holds below 1.3000 but equally capping around 1.3050 after a break back up through 1.3030. I remain a rally seller overall while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. Further falls in EURGBP and some GBPJPY demand still helping to underpin GBPUSD atm. EURGBP: A rally failure around 0.8380 again but holding 0.8330-40 in the retreat so far. I would still expect some more dip demand down here but equally sellers poised in the bounce. GBPJPY: Support at 163.00 now as core pairs continue to find dip demand. Sellers poised though when risk appetite softens.
EURUSD: Sellers prevailing between 1.0930-40 again yesterday but holding 1.0850 in the retreat so far. USDJPY: Based around 125.20 after the BOJ comments-led retreat but failing at the key 125.80 area so far.Caution still advised but good two-way pips again. Trend essentially higher still. EURJPY: Support at 136.20 now after yesterday's failure above 137.00 where I warned of decent sell interest. USDCHF: Failure at 0.9350 this time as EURCHF slides back yet again amid the general EUR retreat yesterday but holding 0.9300 amid the USD demand and now testing 0.9350 again as I type with the SNB casting ahadow still. EURCHF: Failure around 1.0200 again and a solid retreat amid the general EUR selling in past 24 hours but support at 1.0120 for the moment with the SNB lurking.
AUDUSD: 0.7400 area holding the further fall so far where we also have some option interest this week after sellers prevailed above 0.7450 which I warned yesterday had become quite pivotal. Should see good two-way business still so take your pick. NZDUSD has seen another retreat to test 0.6810-15 with more bids into 0.6800 helping to hold so far. USDCAD: 1.2620 now providing a base amid the firmer USD/fragile oil double whammy and now back up through 1.2650 this morning. Two-way business still expected amid all the uncertainty and with option interest in play.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.18 BST
GBPUSD 1.3008
EURUSD 1.0858
EURGBP 0.8347
GBPEUR 1.1978
GBPCAD 1.6457
GBPCHF 1.2138
GBPZAR 18.9286
GBPHKD 10.1348
USDJPY 125.55
EURJPY 136.33
EURCHF 1.0134
EURHKD 8.4598
AUDUSD 0.7424
USDCAD 1.2652
USDCHF 0.9333
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