Tuesday 10 October 2023
Markets still trying to digest the ongoing geopolitical risk amid the awful events in Israel/Gaza and remain understanmdably cautious. Comments yesterday from Fed heads Logan and Jefferson both expressed concern over inflation still and we saw US bond yields fall bringing with it some USD supply but good two-way business overall prevailing still as another day begins.
US PPI tomorrow and CPI on Thursday will keep traders second-guessing amid everything else going on. Fed speakers today include Waller, Kashkari and Daly.
Equities have rallied amid lower yields and remain steadier in early European trading but with one eye on the Middle East while WTI has found support into $84.00 but sellers at $85.50 with the jury still out amid the uncertain global economic picture too. Gold finding support around $1850 now but equally capping at $1865 as natural sellers take advantage of the recent strength. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension and now with the Middle East sadly to the fore.
GBPUSD: Capping around 1.2260 again yesterday but holding 1.2215-20 this morning amid some USD supply and better risk GBPJPY demand. I remain poised for further re-sells. EURGBP: Holding 0.8630 in yesterday's extended retreat as GBPUSD rally outstripped EURUSD but capping at 0.8650 this time. More two-way business expected. GBPJPY: Holding 181.20 yesterday and a decent rally to 182.35 as I type amid the better risk tones. Rally sellers ever poised still.
EURUSD: 1.0520 held again yesterday helped by some USD supply returning and now testing 1.0590 after finding a base at 1.0550. I remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: 148.20 holding yesterday in the extended retreat once 148.50 was broken on the USD supply but rallies (helped by better risk JPY supply) capping around 149.00 atm. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.42 BST
GBPUSD 1.2226
EURUSD 1.0568
EURGBP 0.8643
GBPEUR 1.1567
USDJPY 148.94
GBPJPY 182.12
GBPCAD 1.6603
GBPCHF 1.1091
GBPZAR 23.5078
GBPHKD 9.5233
USDCHF 0.9060
EURCHF 0.9575
EURHKD 1.1567
AUDUSD 0.6397
NZDUSD 0.6002
USDCAD 1.3606
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