Friday 14 April 2023
US Dollar supply still notable after yesterday's soggy US PPI data print followed on from the softer CPI print and second-guesing the US Fed in next month's policy decision continues but dovish tones gettting factored in more and more. US Retail Sales data next off the ramp today at 12.30 GMT to trigger the algos so be ready.
Equities are just off their latest retreat-rally highs but remain underpinned overall amid softening rate hike tones while WTI has capped into that $83.30-50 resistance again and falling through $82.00 as I type. Bids: $81.50-75, $81.00, $80.50-80. Offers: $82.50, $83.00, $83.30-50, $84.00. Gold had a good day back above $2020 but failing into $2050 as longs take some profit as I type. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China/Taiwan tensions in the mix too and now ongoing Middle East tensions.Oh, and North Korea casting a shadow too.
Remember, focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping amid all the second-guessing. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior and be poised to execute.
GBPUSD: Capping into 1.2550 in Asia helped by some GBPJPY softer-risk supply after finding good support into 1.2500 yesterday amid the general USD supply. I remain a rally-seller on this pair overall while we continue to range. EURGBP: Support coming in at 0.8810-20 yesterday as options expiry time came and went and with EURUSD rally outstripping GBPUSD to now test 0.8840-50. Expect more two-way business still but looks underpinned for the moment.GBPJPY: Capping at 166.80 yesterday but holding 165.40 then a lower cap at 166.30 before another hold of 165.40 tyhis moring as softer risk tones returned and USDJPY retreats. Markets remain fickle with sellers still poised when sentiment softens.
EURUSD: Support building at 1.1020 and now 1.1040 amid the USD supply but failing into decent resistance at 1.1080 so far. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall but caution required atm and equally a case for buying dips still supported by ongoing option interest. USDJPY: Failing at 133.40 this time and decent drop below 133.00 post-PPI to test 132.00 before a bounce back to 132.80 then another retreat helped by softer risk tones. Some jobbing pips banked again in the tight range per my tweets and I continue to favour rally sells overall.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs available from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.36 BST
GBPUSD 1.2526
EURUSD 1.1062
EURGBP 0.8830
GBPEUR 1.1323
USDJPY 132.33
GBPJPY 165.66
GBPCAD 1.6670
GBPCHF 1.1107
GBPZAR 22.6467
GBPHKD 9.7453
EURCHF 0.9822
EURHKD 8.6052
AUDUSD 0.6775
NZDUSD 0.6300
USDCAD 1.3325
USDCHF 0.8880
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