Wednesday 16 August 2023
Delivery of this has been interrupted by a power cut here this morning but variable risk sentiment in the past 24 hours again as the second-guessing on CBs, inflation and global economic concerns continues. Commodity currencies remain on the back foot with China's outlook soggy still.
We've seen some USD supply return but the Greenback remains underpinned overall helped by stronger than expected US retails figures yesterday. UK inflation data this morning has seen headline CPI fall again but the key core inflation reading proving stubborn still and will mean no pause for the BOE just yet, giving the Pound some support at the moment. The RBNZ left rates at 5.5% as expected but added that they'll stay high for a while which has helped support NZD.
Equities fell further yesterday amid the global economic concerns but turning up a little this morning in these ever-fickle markets while WTI has found a base this time at $80.00 after capping at the lower $81.50 as the uncertainty continues. Gold currently finding support around $1900 again after a quick look below yesterday but capping around $1910-15 still as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on Ukraine/Russia but also tension in the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: Holding the old 1.2680 support in the latest retreats and now pushing up through 1.2750-60 resistance after the inflation data and helped by a little USD supply returning. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. EURGBP: Finding a cap at 0.8600-10 this time as GBP catches a bid and now down through the pivotal 0.8580-85 area. More two-way expected as core pairs make their mind up but sellers prevailing for the moment. GBPJPY: A good hold of 184.60-80 this time and another strong rally to 185.75 amid some better risk tones and core pair dip demand. Sellers still lurking amid the fragile risk tones overall.
EURUSD: Holding decent support/bids at 1.0900 yesterday but capping at 1.0940-50 still where we have large option interest again tomorrow. I prefer the rally-sell side still. USDJPY: Now underpinned into 145.00 but sellers prevailing at 145.75-85 still for the moment amid BOJ/MOF intervention fears and some USD supply returning. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall but with patience a virtue as ever. Equally dip buyers finding results too of course as the pair remains underpinned overall for the moment.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs from mike@ mspfx.co.uk
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.40 BST
GBPUSD 1.2730
EURUSD 1.0926
EURGBP 0.8578
GBPEUR 1.1667
USDJPY 145.50
GBPJPY 185.53
GBPCAD 1.7201
GBPCHF 1.1204
GBPZAR 24.3312
GBPHKD 9.9167
USDCHF 0.8783
EURCHF 0.9600
EURHKD 8.4976
AUDUSD 0.6475
NZDUSD 0.5986
USDCAD 1.3480
Comentarios