Thursday 23 November 2023
Some profit-taking still notable into the long US week-end amid mixed data from the US yesterday which has brought both USD demand and supply so the jury remains out and FOMC second-guessing continues.
The ongoing Middle East back-story sadly continues meanwhile and casts its own shadow over markets but still not driving them atm. Ignore at your peril though. Another reminder that it's US Thanksgiving week and now heading into a long week-end so liquidity will be reduced. UK Autumn Statement didn't spring any surprises/impact GBP. More election sweetening to be expected next Spring. German data out this morning is encouraging the EUR bulls.
Equities dipped then rallied in NY again amid the mixed data and been steady in Asia and early European trading albeit coming off their highs as I type. WTI has seen a dip from $77.20 to $75.80 then bounce to $76.80 as OPEC+ delayed their meeting from 26 Nov to 30 Nov with disagreement over planned supply cuts with global demand concerns continuing. Gold has found a base at $1985 again but failed into $2000 this time as the jury remains out.
GBPUSD: Holding 1.2450 yesterday in the USD-led retreat from 1.2500 and I remain poised for further rally sells when momentum fades but caution still required for the moment. Some option contract interest at 1.2540. Breaking news: Spike to 1.2575 on better PMI data as I type but quickly falling back to 1.2530. EURGBP: Support at 0.87300 again but now capping at 0.8725. More two-way expected amid the core pair fluctuation/CB rhetoric. Some options very much in play today too at 0.8720.
GBPJPY: Basing at 186.30 but capping at 187.00 still amid the mixed USD/risk tones.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0880 yet again in yesterday's retreat but capping at 1.0930 in the bounce amid some USD demand returning. I remain a rally seller overall still as we continue to range tightly but caution still required for the moment. Very large option contracts very much in play again. USDJPY: Capping at 149.70 after the USD demand rally and since holding 148.90 on the reverse move. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these still elevated levels but dip demand notable too as the USD/risk jury remains out.
For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.36 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2522
EURUSD 1.0915
EURGBP 0.8716
GBPEUR 1.1470
USDJPY 149.15
GBPJPY 186.76
GBPCAD 1.7155
GBPCHF 1.1083
GBPZAR 23.4966
GBPHKD 9.7765
USDCHF 0.8828
EURCHF 0.9636
EURHKD 8.5087
AUDUSD 0.6565
NZDUSD 0.6055
USDCAD 1.3662
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