Monday 12 February 2024
Wow, what a Superbowl.. Tired eyes this morning though !
Lunar New Year holidays underway and with China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan all off today it's been a very quiet start to the week. FX pairs still ranging tightly therefore. Market focus on fresh US CPI data tomorrow as the second-guessing continues.
The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions are all still casting their own shadow. CB speakers today include Fed's Barkin (again!) Bowman and Kashkari, with ECB's Lane and BOE's Bailey both up to the rostrum too. While all the uncertainty remains, both economical and geopolitical, remember to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows. Don't get greedy or over-analyse.
Equities remain underpinned as European trading gets underway with the S&P remaining above 5000 and near its highs. WTI has tested $77.25 after rallying from $75.80 on Friday amid supply concerns still and better risk tones and holding there again this morning in the retreat. Gold capping at $2035 but holding $2020 still in the retreat so far as we continue to range tightly.
GBPUSD: Capping into 1.2660 this morning after holding 1.2600 on Friday as the USD jury remains out but support coming from some GBPJPY demand still albeit off its highs too. I remain poised for further sells when momentum fades as we continue to range. EURGBP: Capping at 0.8547 but holding 0.8530 still as the BOE/ECB debates continue and therefore ranging tightly. GBPJPY: Holding 188.00-20 now but capping at 188.80. Sellers will remain poised but underpinned again for the moment.
EURUSD: Support at 1.0750-60 but capping at 1.0805 this morning as we continue to range. I remain a rally seller. USDJPY: 149.00 the support line now amid the JPY supply but failing above 149.50. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall given that the BOJ still don't want this racing away too far but dip demand still notable for the moment.
For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.44 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2622
EURUSD 1.0775
EURGBP 0.8536
GBPEUR 1.1713
USDJPY 149.13
GBPJPY 188.25
GBPCAD 1.6975
GBPCHF 1.1046
GBPZAR 24.0236
GBPHKD 9.8232
USDCHF 0.8748
EURCHF 0.9426
EURHKD 8.3816
AUDUSD 0.6514
NZDUSD 0.6121
USDCAD 1.3465
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