Friday 3 September 2021
Some better risk sentiment prevailing as markets wait on the US jobs and wages data today with traders looking for new clues on any imminent action by the US Fed. Some good two-way pips to be had meanwhile with no second-guessing required as we continue to range tightly.
As always with these key data releases we see a lot of hype/analysis and a wide range of forecasts so let the algos do the heavy work and be poised with entry/exit levels and place orders prior however wish-list. We will expect everything and nothing. Plenty of options rolling off today too that will be in play through the NFP fall-out.
Japanese PM has announced his surprise resignation but he's been under poressure for a while and the FX market reaction thus far has therefore been minimal but the Nikkei has risen 2% on the news.
Patience and discipline in trading are key as ever and not being greedy.
GBPUSD: 1.3800 finally broke helped by the better risk GBPJPY demand and EURGBP capping above 0.8600 again.Rally re-sells per my tweets with more added into 1.3850 but some caution into the NFPs and potential increse in risk sentiment. Large option interest in play too. I remain a rally seller while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always. EURGBP: Supported still at 0.8580-85 after another failure at the larger sell interest at 0.8600 which I've been highlighting this week. Expiries at 0.8610 tody still helping to cap. GBPJPY: 152.00 resistance duly broken on the better risk tones. Support now at 151.80 and the pivotal 151.60. Ranging still overall.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.
EURUSD: Holding at 1.1850 now pushing onto 1.1880-85. Lots of option interest in play today through NFPs. USDJPY: 109.80 providing support on the dip and now tight round 110.00 where we have large option interest today.
EURJPY: 130.20-30 still supporting and that decent sell interest at 130.50 now history amid the better risk tones. More sellers lurking at 130.80-00. USDCHF: Testing 0.9140 this morning after failing at 0.9170 but with the SNB ever vigiliant and EURCHF off its highs after recent gains. EURCHF: 1.0850 now providing support with SNB shadow ever present.
AUDUSD: Remains underpinned and 0.7400 now a decent support line amid firmer metals/better risk. Large option expiries today 0.7350 helping to support too but capping at the key 0.7420-25 area so far. Delicately poised. USDCAD: 1.2580 support now broken amid the underpinned oil tones and softer USD plays plus CADJPY demand but holding 1.2540 so far. Large option interest in play helping to support but equally could help contain through NFPs.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 07.27 BST
GBPUSD 1.3831
EURUSD 1.1875
EURGBP 0.8585
GBPEUR 1.1646
GBPJPY 152.18
GBPCAD 1.7350
GBPZAR 19.9467
GBPHKD 10.7736
USDJPY 110.02
USDZAR 14.4280
EURJPY 130.66
EURCHF 1.0857
EURHKD 9.2509
AUDUSD 0.7420
USDCAD 1.2546
USDCHF 0.9143
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