Friday 24 November 2023
All been relatively calm over the past 24 hours as the USD jury remains out and we've seen some more book tidying into the long US week-end and the FOMC/Central Bank second-guessing continues.
The ongoing Middle East back-story sadly continues meanwhile and casts its own shadow over markets with today's start of a 4-day ceasefire welcome but still not driving prices. Ignore at your peril though. Another reminder that it's the US Thanksgiving long week-end so liquidity will be reduced. Yesterday's decent UK PMI lit a fuse under GBP and it remains well supported albeit with gains still being capped.
Equities dipped and rallied in NY again but fell again in Asia before gains in early European trading as I type. WTI has seen a dip to $75.20 before a rally to $76.80 as the OPEC+ conjecture continues over planned supply cuts with global demand concerns continuing. Gold has found a base at $1990 this time again but still failinto into $2000 as the jury remains out.
GBPUSD: The sharp spike post-PMI data capped at 1.2573 but we've held 1.2520-30 well in the various retreats and on the rise again through 1.2560 as I type.I remain poised for further rally sells when momentum fades but caution still required for the moment. EURGBP: Support at the old 0.8685 area this time amid the GBP demand again but now capping at 0.8710. More two-way expected amid the core pair fluctuation/CB rhetoric. GBPJPY: Basing at 187.00 amid the mixed risk tones and GBP demand and testing 187.80 as I type. Sellers remain poised amid MOF/BOJ interevention fears and fragile risk.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0880 still in yesterday's retreat but capping at 1.0920 in the bounce as the USD and ECB juries remain out. I remain a rally seller overall still as we continue to range tightly. USDJPY: Capping at 149.70 again but holding 149.20 in the retreats. Jobbing pips gratefully banked.I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these still elevated levels but dip demand notable too as the USD/risk jury remains out.
For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.42 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2554
EURUSD 1.0916
EURGBP 0.8693
GBPEUR 1.1500
USDJPY 149.51
GBPJPY 187.72
GBPCAD 1.7194
GBPCHF 1.1097
GBPZAR 23.7688
GBPHKD 9.7765
USDCHF 0.8834
EURCHF 0.9644
EURHKD 8.5013
AUDUSD 0.6566
NZDUSD 0.6059
USDCAD 1.3687
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