Monday 4 September 2023
Fun and games on Friday after the US NFPs produced a mixed bag of key data with higher payrolls but increased unemployment rate and we saw the Greenback first fall sharply then rally more so as US bonds got sold and yields rose.
The jury remains out on quite why we saw the reversal and we've seen some USD supply return in Asia and early European trading ahead of the Labour Day holiday in the USA and Canada today. Exception is USDJPY which has remained underpinned helped by some better risk JPY supply.
Equities have rallied from Friday's lows to recover some of the losses while WTI has remained underpinned per recent trend and held at $83.50 on Friday before posting $85.75 but dipping a little this morning as I type. Gold finding support around $1935-40 again but rallies weak and capping above $1950 as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension but also the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: The support at 1.2650-60 gave way on Friday's USD demand helped by softer risk GBPJPY supply after capping into 1.2720 in the immediate aftermath post-NFP. Lows of 1.2575 but now rallying to 1.2625. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. Offers building between 1.2650-60 then more 1.2680-00. EURGBP: Holding 0.8545-50 still as I type after capping again into the pivotal 0.8580-85 again with more two-way expected overall as core pairs make their mind up. GBPJPY: Back up through 184.60 on the better risk tones after holding 183.60 in Friday's risk wobble retreat. GBP sellers will remain poised as risk remains fragile.
EURUSD: Support at the 1.0830 line broken on Friday after capping at 1.0880 with a fall to 1.0770 and struggling to hold above 1.0800 so far this morning in the bounce. I remain a rally seller. USDJPY: Holding 144.50 in Friday's retreat but capping into 146.50 as I type now. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall with patience a virtue as ever.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.47 BST
GBPUSD 1.2627
EURUSD 1.0800
EURGBP 0.8551
GBPEUR 1.1692
USDJPY 146.39
GBPJPY 184.85
GBPCAD 1.7175
GBPCHF 1.1167
GBPZAR 23.8001
GBPHKD 9.8388
USDCHF 0.8835
EURCHF 0.9542
EURHKD 8.4150
AUDUSD 0.6466
NZDUSD 0.5946
USDCAD 1.3590
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