Monday 9 October 2023
Geopolitical risk has always been the elephant in the room which I've highlighted on a daily basis for a long while now as the world remains a very fragile place, no more so after the awful events in Israel/Gaza over the weekend. Markets have reacted with understandable caution and softer-risk appetite with USD and JPY demand notable while oil has jumped higher on potential supply concerns and equities have fallen.
Key US NFP jobs and wages data came in a lot stronger than expected and gave the Greenback some immediate support but there were sellers poised and those large options expriries to help contain the move across a variety of pairs per my warning here and tweets.
Equities gapped lower in Asia on the ME crisis but steadier in early European trading as I type while WTI gapped higher from below Friday's $82.00 close to test $86.00 before finding sellers with the jury still out amid the uncertain global economic picture too and now down to $83.90. Gold finding support around $1815 again on Friday and gapping in Asia from its $1830 close to test $1855 on the softer risk tones. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension and now with the Middle East sadly to the fore.
GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2260 on Friday and down to 1.2173 this morning as I type with decent size options in play at 1.2150. Latest rally duly sold and I remain poised for further re-sells. EURGBP: Holding 0.8640-50 still after capping at 0.8655 this time as core pairs rally off their lows at differing pace again. More two-way business expected.
GBPJPY: Holding 181.50 as I type after a fall from 183.00 amid the softer risk tones. Rally sellers ever poised still as I've been warning.
EURUSD: 1.0520 forming a base atm after dropping from 1.0600 amid the USD demand. i remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: 149.00-10 holding holding in the latest retreats but rallies tempered around 149.30 by softer risk JPY demand Pips banked and I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.36 BST
GBPUSD 1.2175
EURUSD 1.0524
EURGBP 0.8643
GBPEUR 1.1567
USDJPY 149.16
GBPJPY 181.58
GBPCAD 1.6643
GBPCHF 1.1093
GBPZAR 23.5703
GBPHKD 9.4843
USDCHF 0.9122
EURCHF 0.9600
EURHKD 8.1995
AUDUSD 0.6352
NZDUSD 0.5910
USDCAD 1.3675
Comments