Wednesday 18 October 2023
Risk sentiment once again remains fragile amid the Middle East tensions as US President Biden flies in to Israel. Some softer equity tones this morning but the Greenback remains underpinned overall albeit off its highs. USDJPY saw another retreat as Japaense yields rose prompting MOF/BOJ intervention talk but nothing like yesterday's tumble to 148.80. JPY and CHF demand still notable and helping to cap core pairs too.
UK inflation data come in above expectations with rising oil/ful pump prices sited as a major cause so that shouldn't have surprised too many people but the Pound had an algo-jerk higher before sellers took opportunity again. Fed's Waller, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Harker and Cook up to the rostrum later amid the latest Fed Beige Book release.
Equities had a better time of it yesterday in NY again but falling into the the close and a little softer in Asia/early Europe since. WTI found support around $85.00 again but capping ay $87.85 in the extedned rally with the jury still out amid the uncertain ME and global economic picture too. Gold has found support around $1920-25 this time and testing $1940-45 amid the fragile risk tones but with natural sellers ever poised still. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension and now with the Middle East sadly to the fore. Putin currently visiting China.
GBPUSD: Capping around 1.2210-20 again yesterday and this morning after a hold of 1.2130 then 1.2160 again with good size option interest today very much in play. I remain poised for further re-sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Currently trading tightly still albeit higher since the break of 0.8675 and now 0.8665-95 for the moment.More two-way business expected as core pairs fluctuate. GBPJPY: Holding 181.80 again but also another cap at 182.80 with rally sellers ever poised still.
EURUSD: 1.0540 then 1.0560 support area this time with some option interest still in play but capping at 1.0595 so far. I remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: Yesterday's intervention tumble to 148.80 was welcome suffice to say and some pips banked per ongoing strategy with re-sell placed in the climb back ionto 149.80 per my tweets yesterday. 149.40-50 holding again since but rallies capping around 149.80 still with MOF intervention fears still there. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.40 BST
GBPUSD 1.2192
EURUSD 1.0577
EURGBP 0.8675
GBPEUR 1.1525
USDJPY 149.73
GBPJPY 182.53
GBPCAD 1.6615
GBPCHF 1.0965
GBPZAR 22.8667
GBPHKD 9.4962
USDCHF 0.8993
EURCHF 0.9512
EURHKD 8.2395
AUDUSD 0.6382
NZDUSD 0.5904
USDCAD 1.3632
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