Monday 7 March 2022
As I said on Friday, you don't need me to spell out all the latest headlnes and these remain extremely worrying times. Gold, oil and other commodities gapped massively higher in Asia on news that US was considering banning Rusian oil imports and the realisation that Putin isn't backing down anyime soon with the West stuck between a large rock and a very hard place on what they can do to intervene. I'm not sure why that one took so long...
JPY and CHF demand notable again in FX pairs with the Euro still feeling the brunt of the fall-out and commodity currencies remain in demand as Gold touches $2000 and Brent oil hits heady 13-year highs of $136.80.Meanwhile conjecture over Central Bank rate hikes continues particularly now in these increasingly fragile times. Better than expected US jobs data on Friday to give the Fed more green lights for rate hike lift-off. ECB policy decision on Thursday.
GBPUSD: Has continued its downward trend and now posting 1.3165 as I type amid the fragile risk tones bringing GBJPY supply albeit tempered by some further EURGBP supply too. EURGBP: Still in retreat overall amid the general EUR supply but holding 0.8200 and now testing 0.8250. Sellers will remain poised. GBPJPY: New lows of 151.30 amid softer risk tones and justifying my core belief for some time now albeit obviously I admit I wasn't even factoring in WW111 a month ago....
EURUSD: The general EUR weakness continues adding pressure on this core pair amid firmer USD tones still and now posting fresh lows of 1.0822 before a small bouce as I'm typing. USDJPY: Overall USD dip demand still supporting at 114.50-60 and now testing 115.00 again. EURJPY: Holding 124.50 so far in this latest retreat but sellers always poised in these ever fickle times amid the Euro generally remaining fragile.USDCHF: Holding 0.9160 in the latest retreat but rally sellers still poised amid the fragile backdrop as EURCHF remains on the back foot but back above 1.0000 with SNB shadow lurking down here.EURCHF: Fresh lows of 0.9971 amid the EUR supply/CHF risk-off demand double whammy but back above 1.000 now with SNB trying to stem the tide a little it would appear. Rally sellers poised still.
AUDUSD: Commodity ccy demand sees a break of 0.7400 resistance but failing at 0.7440 so far helped by some firmer USD tones.Rally sellers being cautious. USDCAD: Capped above 1.2780 on Friday but supported at 1.2680 since despite the surge in oil prices but rally sellers poised .I still think we'll see some two-way business amid all the uncertainty.Caution required though with so many variables.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.15 GMT
GBPUSD 1.3182
EURUSD 1.0870
EURGBP 0.8245
GBPEUR 1.2125
GBPJPY 151.51
USDJPY 114.94
EURJPY 125.00
EURCHF 1.0019
AUDUSD 0.7412
USDCAD 1.2706
USDCHF 0.9212
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