Monday 24 April 2023
Forex market still tighly ranging amid the CB/global economy uncertainty with the latest policy decisions from Bank of Japan later this week and US Federal Reserve next week looming. Softer risk tones prevailing overall still and some USD positive bias but all going nowhere in a hurry.
Equities are in retreat once again this morning on the risk-off sentiment while WTI has capped into $78.50 again and broken back down through $77.50 pivot area to test $76.80 again as I type amid the global economic slowdown concerns. Gold has had another dip after failing at $2000 this time despite the softer risk tones but holding $1970-80 again so far. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China/Taiwan tensions in the mix too and now ongoing Middle East tensions and turmoil in Sudan escalating.
Remember, focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping amid all the second-guessing. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior and be poised to execute.
GBPUSD: Still capping around 1.2450 amid the general USD demand and helped by some risk-off GBPJPY supply again but equally holding 1.2360-80.Some pips banked in the retreat on Friday and some rally re-sells duly placed per ongoing strategy. Rinse n repeat while we range and I remain a rally-seller on this pair overall. EURGBP options in play so keep an eye on that for core pair impact. EURGBP: Support coming in now at 0.8825-30 where we have some decent option interest today after failing at 0.8860 on Friday and where we also have option interest today. Expect more two-way business still. GBPJPY: Capping at 167.25 this times as risk tones soften again after a hold of 165.50 on Friday but with sellers poised still as the risk jury remains out.
EURUSD: A good hold of 1.0930-40 again on Friday and some pips banked again in the retreat but failing to break 1.1000 as tight ranges continue. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall but equally a case for buying dips still as we continue to range. ECB conjecture continues amid the rhetoric.USDJPY: Capping now around 134.50 after a decent rally from 133.50. Pips gratefully banked and I continue to favour rally sells overall with hedges elsewhere as I've mentioned previously.
Interbank rates: 07.55 BST
GBPUSD 1.2419
EURUSD 1.0975
EURGBP 0.8835
GBPEUR 1.1317
USDJPY 134.13
GBPJPY 166.61
GBPCAD 1.6843
GBPCHF 1.1075
GBPZAR 22.5961
GBPHKD 9.6908
USDCHF 0.8921
EURCHF 0.9790
EURHKD 8.5637
AUDUSD 0.6668
NZDUSD 0.6132
USDCAD 1.3565
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