Wednesday 9 August 2023
Tight ranging FX business overall in the past 24 hours again with a little Greenback supply returning and risk tones variable as the jury remains out ahead of tomorrow's CPI data and with yesterday's Chinese trade data still reverberating.
Equities have rallied off yesterday's lows addinf to a better risk appetite but steady in Asia as the second-guessing continues. WTI has found a base this time at $79.50 then $81.50 after the extended Chinse date-led wobble and now looking to test the old resistance line at $83.00 albeit steady in Asia. Gold found support into $1920-25 this time after yesterday's lower $1936 cap as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on Ukraine/Russia but also tension in the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2780 this morning after yesterday's solid hold of the strong 1.2680 area again. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. EURGBP: Finding a cap at 0.8625 again yesterday but equally holding 0.8590 in the retreats so far with pivotal 0.8580-85 area just below. More two-way expected as core pairs make their mind up. GBPJPY: A good hold of 181.50 again as equities rallied yesterday in NY but sellers still lurking at the old 183.00 resistance amid the mixed risk tones.
EURUSD: Holding the old 1.0930 support area yesterday but capping at 1.0990 this morning 1.0975 as we continue to trade tightly. I prefer the rally-sell side still. USDJPY: Now underpinned at 142.80-00 support with very large options interest there today as I warned yesterday but sellers prevailing at 143.40-50 again helped by some softer USD tones. I remain a rally seller as preferred side but with patience a virtue as ever.
USDCHF: Support at 0.8720-30 again after another fall from 0.8770-80. Good jobbing pips to be had still in narrow range and I remain a rally seller overall.EURCHF: Good support this time around the old 0.9580 support but rally sellers still poised between 0.9620-30 as we continue to range tightly here too.
AUDUSD: Support around 0.6500 yesterday where had some options rolling off as I warned then 0.6525-30 before a cap this morning at 0.6575. I remain a rally seller overall.GBPAUD: Underpinned around 1.9430-50 again but still tightly bound as core pairs fluctate. NZDUSD: Similar back story to AUDUSD yet again with support around 0.6040 then 0.6070 again but capping into 0.6100 this time.GBPNZD: Also underpinned still, this time at 2.0900 then 2.0950-00.
USDCAD: Support coming in at 1.3400 this time after capping at 1.3500 amid the firmer oil tones and a little USD supply returning plus CADJPY demand as equities rallied. Expect more two-way business as I've been warning amid the oil, USD and risk variables.
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.43 BST
GBPUSD 1.2767
EURUSD 1.0983
EURGBP 0.8602
GBPEUR 1.1624
USDJPY 143.21
GBPJPY 182.85
GBPCAD 1.7111
GBPCHF 1.1153
GBPZAR 24.0652
GBPHKD 9.9323
USDCHF 0.8736
EURCHF 0.9594
EURHKD 8.5475
AUDUSD 0.6566
NZDUSD 0.6086
USDCAD 1.3411
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