Tuesday 19 September 2023
USD demand still prevailing amid firm US bond yields as markets wait on tomorrow's US Fed interest rate decision with expectations of a pause but room being left in the strategy to hike again if needed. BOE and BOJ rate/policy decisions in focus this week too. Some Euro demand notable amid rising EZ bond yields in the wake of last week's ECB dovish tones.
Equities fell then rallied then fell again in NY trading but steadying a little in Asia albeit fragile still as European trading gets underway. WTI remains underpinned with some forecasts looking at $100 a barrel but capped into $91.35 as I type after holding $89.80-00. Gold finding support around $1925-30 but failing to make headway with natural sellers still poised and tight range prevailing. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension but also the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: 1.2400-10 providing the cap atm but holding 1.2370 still as traders remain cautious ahead of FOMC and BOE outcomes. Keeping core shorts still and I remain poised for rally re-sells.BOE on Thursday in focus for GBP pairs.
EURGBP: Holding 0.8610-20 now amid some renewed EUR demand on the rising EZ bond yields and some GBP supply generally ahead of BOE on Thursday. More two-way expected overall. GBPJPY: Capped at 183.20 agaiN but still holding 182.75 as markets pause for thoughr into FOMC tomorrow. Sellers ever poised as I've been warning amid the fragile risk tones.
EURUSD: A hold of 1.0675 this time amid some general EUR demand but capping into 1.0700 where we also have some option interest and more a little higher as we range tightly. I remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: A good hold of 147.50 again amid the general USD demand but still capping at 148.00 amid fears of MOF/BOJ intervention. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.37 BST
GBPUSD 1.2387
EURUSD 1.0691
EURGBP 0.8629
GBPEUR 1.1587
USDJPY 147.66
GBPJPY 182.94
GBPCAD 1.6677
GBPCHF 1.1088
GBPZAR 23.4657
GBPHKD 9.6518
USDCHF 0.8966
EURCHF 0.9587
EURHKD 8.3298
AUDUSD 0.6448
NZDUSD 0.5933
USDCAD 1.3457
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