Friday 3 May 2024
We saw USD selling as the more considered reaction to the FOMC decision/Powell presser but yesterday saw a little demand return before once again markets resumed the selling as most pairs continue to range ahead of today's NFP data but extended move lower in USDJPY to post levels below 153.00, the previous support area 24 hours earlier, before a small bounce but intervention not suspected this time. It was a far more considered move but the JPY demand on the crosses once again capping other core pair rallies.
Data slate today includes the key Non Farm Payrolls and ISM PMI to set the algos off but there's also a press conference by Japan's FM Suzuki and BOJ Governor Ueda from the fringes of the Asian Development Bank meeting at 13.45 GMT. The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East tensions still cast their own very large shadow too. Remember as always to identify your preferred levels but don't get greedy.
Equities fell then rallied in NY as USD supply returned but once again steadier in Asia/early Europe amid all the various CB/data second-guessing. WTI capped above $79.60 yesterday and dipped again since to test $78.20 in the extended retreat before boucing but capping at $79.20 this morning amid the ongoing variables. Gold held $2285 but capped into $2310 with profit-taking once more evident.
GBPUSD: Failing around 1.2560 again as I type after holding 1.2475-80 then 1.2500 in yesterday's retreats but rally tempered by some GBPJPY supply. Cross flows very much in play still. EURGBP: Capping into 0.8565 this time but holding 0.8545 still as the ECB/BOE rate cut conjecture and cross flows continue. GBPJPY: Holding 191.70-80 in latest retreats amid the USDJPY fall and general JPY demand after capping at 193.50. Sellers will remain poised in these fickle markets but still expecting dip demand too as I've been warning.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0720 yesterday and this morning as the USD supply returned and up through 1.0730 resistance/offers as I type. Patience a virtue as we range tightly still. USDJPY: Capping at 155.00 then 154.50 as the USD supply returned and drop through 153.00 but support coming in at 152.80 on this occasion. Intervention risk, NFPs and that MOF/BOJ presser all adding to the uncertainty.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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