Tuesday 11 April 2023
Decent NFP data from the US on Friday initially brought with it some USD demand and confirming expectations of a 25bps rate hike next month but we've since seen some supply return although USDJPY is looking a little underpinned helped by better risk sentiment. BOJ Governor Ueda has also been disappointing the hawks with his first official statements since he took office and expressing no immediate rush to change monetary policy although still ruling nothing out.
US CPI data tomorrow in focus as is the Bank of Canada policy announcement but little of note scheduled for today to shake things up. Also tomorrow we have speeches from ECB's De Guindos and BOE's Bailey.
Equities are off retreat lows once again and remain underpinned overall as Europe get going but tightly bound still while WTI is also on the rise once more after yet another hold of $79.50 yesterday after capping $81.00-20 and the jury remains out. Gold fell back to test $1980 yesterday amid the better risk tones but trying to crawl bakc above $2000 as I type. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China/Taiwan tensions in the mix too and now ongoing Middle East tensions.
GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2440 yesterday but finding good support into 1.2340 helped by some GBPJPY demand again. Jury remains out on the Greenback but I remain rally-seller on this pair overall while we continue to range. EURGBP: Tightly bound still with 0.8800 capping after the break through 0.8760-80 but equally support coming in at 0.8750-60 now. Expect more two-way business still. GBPJPY: A base now at 164.00 amid the better risk and soggy JPY tones as markets remain fickle with sellers poised once sentiment softens.
EURUSD: Decent support building at 1.0850-60 now after the extended retreat into 1.0830 yesterday after capping at 1.0920. Some pips banked in the retreat and I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall. USDJPY: Failing at 133.85 amid the general USD supply returning after finding good support at 132.00 and 131.80. JPY supply notable per comments above.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs available from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 07.50 BST
GBPUSD 1.2414
EURUSD 1.0883
EURGBP 0.8763
GBPEUR 1.1410
USDJPY 133.50
GBPJPY 165.75
GBPCAD 1.6780
GBPCHF 1.1249
GBPZAR 22.8208
GBPHKD 9.6830
EURCHF 0.9872
EURHKD 8.4865
AUDUSD 0.6671
NZDUSD 0.6221
USDCAD 1.3494
USDCHF 0.9071
Comments