Friday 27 March 2020
Lots of conjecture/theory about why the Pound should have enjoyed such a positive 48 hours but it still seems to me the market just got over extended on its fall and we've been seeing some panic-buying as more n more stops get triggered.I have no exact answers but have warned of being careful on entry levels and making sure you're seeing the real flow pattern. Well, that flow has been positive, and some, so in these volatile times sellers need to stand back and let it play out.
Elsewhere we've seen equity markets rebound only to run into rally-sellers again (correctly imho) but oil continues to show no tendency to rally and that for me is notable and says risk-off/reality check is still the main play moving forward. Oil falling again now as I type.
I warned yesterday that GBPUSD has found a good line in the sand at 1.1820 and we've seen another strong rebound to break the 1.2000 cap and test 1.2300 before reteating on another risk reality-check. EURGBP yesterday failed above 0.9200 on the strong GBP demand but has found a base at 0.9000 so far only to fail at 0.9080 on the latest rally.GBPJPY found support around 130.80 but failed above 133.60 and since holding 132.00 on the retreat with core pairs both finding dip demand.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever.Nothing in these latest moves to change my mind but as always patience is a virtue and entry level key.
USDJPY has duly fallen to 108.24 but reboundiong to post 109.00 as I type while EURJPY has been up to look at 121.00 again as EURUSD rally outpaced USDJPY retreat before retreating as USDJPY supply returns to post 119.63.EURUSD has been up to 1.1087 amid the general USD supply but sellers prevailed and now testing 1.1000 pivot again where we also have 1.15bln expiries today.USDCHF capped around 0.9730 as EURUSD rallied but losses below 0.9600 tempered buy some EURCHF dip demand again with that pair finding support around 1.0600.
AUDUSD rallied strongly from 0.5960 to test 0.6125-30 before retreating but still underpinned as I type into 0.6050. USDCAD has fallen further from 1.4220 to look at 1.3980 amid the general USD supply but finding some dip demand as oil prices head lower again weakening the C$.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.
Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets that you might need some further help with.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still and make sure you get some rest over the weekend.
Interbank rates: 08.17 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2187
EURUSD 1.1030
EURGBP 0.9048
GBPEUR 1.1049
GBPAUD 2.0040
GBPCAD 1.7115
GBPJPY 132.59
GBPZAR 21.4150
GBPHKD 9.4486
USDJPY 108.81
USDZAR 17.5437
EURJPY 120.01
EURCHF 1.0617
EURHKD 8.5515
AUDUSD 0.6075
USDCAD 1.4047
USDCHF 0.9625
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