Tuesday 27 November 2018
After a period of "what happens next?" and the Pound in tight mode we've now seen the Brexit reality-check kick in again helped by Trump expressing concerns of his own over future trade deals. The Withdrawal Agreement gets its Commons vote on 11th December and May has a real job on her hands still. All contrived by May and her Remainers to produce a no deal/second referendum scenario? We will probably never know for sure but the markets are starting to see that whatever transpires now leaves the UK in a real place of uncertainty, something I've been banging on about for a long time.
GBPUSD yesterday failed above 1.2850 and has traded down to weekly lows of 1.2735 this morning in a fairly steady line not only on the Brexit-based wobbles but also by helped the end-of month EURGBP demand expectation as I pointed out again yesterday. Immediate offers now at 1.2760 and 1.2780 then larger at 1.2800,1.2820 and 1.2850. Bids/demand building around 1.2720-30 then larger at 1.2700, 1.2680 and 1.2650 still.I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips while remaining core short, a strategy that continues to work well.
EURGBP has duly found support at the 0.8830 area I've mentioned a few times on the general GBP weakness and with that month-end BUBA demand in play again. Immediate bids/demand now around 0.8850 then the decent buy interest again poised around 0.8830 and 0.8800 with sellers still at 0.8880, 0.8900 and 0.8920.
EURUSD has been in general retreat again, helped by some better Greenback sentiment and on-going focus on Italy,and now broken down through the 1.1320 support area to test the next lines at 1.1300.Immediate demand/support there then 1.1280 and 1.1250 still with sell interest building at 1.1330 and 1.1350 then 1.1375-80 and and 1.1400.
USDJPY dipped to 113.1 before finding dip demand yet again and has now climbed to post 113.66 this morning helped by some positive US-China trade talk ahead of this week's G20 meeting and fringe discussions between Trump and Xi. Bids building now at 113.40 then 113.20, 113.00 and 112.75-80 still with offers into 113.80, 114.00 and 114.20. I remain a rally seller for the moment buying back in the dips.
USDCHF remains underpinned possibly with some SNB smoothing assistance and has now held 0.9960 to post 1.0003 . EURCHF similarly has so far held around 1.1300 again but sellers remain poised.Bids/support now at 1.1300 then 1.1280 and 1.1250 with USDCHF demand now at 0.9980 then 0.9960 and 0.9930. Sellers poised at 1.1330 then 1.1350-60 still and 1.1380 with USDCHF supply now at 1.0020 and 1.0050. I'm happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment in these tight ranges.
AUDUSD yesterday failed into the 0.7280 offers/resistance and fell back through 0.7330-50 support to test the larger bids at 0.7200 before bouncing back to 0.7270 this morning on those trade-positive headlines given Australia's close China alignment/dependency. It didn't stay up there for long though and sellers have once again prevailed. Bids now at 0.7220 then the larger interest at 0.7200 and 0.7180 still with those 0.7280 sellers again lurking then 0.7300. USDCAD has rallied again on the USD-demand/oil price fall double-whammy.Buyers lining up at 1.3230 then 1.3280 and 1.3160 with sellers still poised around 1.3280 and 1.3300.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.
Tonight the currently less than mighty Shrimpers of Southend United FC return to the hallowed Hall and we can only hope for signs of improvement.
Have a good week out there one and all.
Interbank Rate 08.11 GMT GBPUSD 1.2743 EURUSD 1.1307 EURGBP 0.8874 GBPEUR 1.1267 USDJPY 113.58 USDCAD 1.3267 USDCHF 1.0001 GBPAUD 1.7616 GBPCAD 1.6903 GBPCHF 1.2743 GBPHKD 9.8796 EURHKD 8.7687
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