Wednesday 19 September 2018
EU Brexit negotiator Barnier has said they are "ready to improve" their Irish border offer in a change of stance ahead of today's EU summit in Salzburg. The more conciliatory tone amid better/unfazed general market sentiment on US-China trade issues plus stronger than expected UK inflation data just released has lent a little support to the Pound but it's all very scrappy still and sellers remain poised.
GBPUSD has now posted highs of 1.3212 on the UK August inflation data which shows m/mm,y/y and core CPI all rising again, albeit Summer seasonal. Yesterday and prior to the release we had seen a rally from the 1.3130 support lines I highlighted to test 1.3180 helped by some GBPJPY and GBPCHF demand before.Sellers poised into 1.3220 then 1.3250, 1.3280, and 1.3300. Immediate demand now building at 1.3150 then larger into that 1.3130 line with more at 1.3100, 1.3080 and 1.3060. I prefer to take advantage of the rallies to go short still but not getting greedy with the Pound feeling a bit of love for the moment.
EURGBP has fallen this morning to 0.8862 (GBPEUR up to 1.1284) post-data having clawed its way back to 0.8902 from 0.8970. Sellers now initially poised around 0.8880 then 0.8900 with more between 0.8920-30. Immediate demand around 0.8850-55, then 0.8830, 0.8800 and 0.8785.
EURUSD once again failed into the 1.1720-30 resistance area I've been highlighting but equally also remains underpinned helped by EURJPY and EURCHF demand. Buying interest at 1.1680 then larger between 1.1650-60, 1.1620 still then 1.1600. Sellers still poised between 1.1720-30 then 1.1750, 1.1780-85 and 1.1800.
USDJPY looks underpinned with Yen sellers back out in force despite all the trade war uncertainty and BOJ offering little additional clues on policy at today's meeting where rates were left on hold at -0.1%. With 112.20-30 resistance now broken we still have sell interest at 112.50 holding further gains for the moment with larger interest between 112.80-113.00. Buyers now around 112.20, 112.00 then 111.80 and 111.50.Jury still remains out on the Swiss Franc with USDCHF holding 0.9600 and rallying to test 0.9660 and EURCHF holding 1.1220 to post highs of 1.1302. I noted yesterday that dip demand still around 1.1220 and 0.9600 with the SNB ever-watchful but sellers interest remaining poised now between 1.1300-20 with buyers now into 1.1250 and 1.1220 still. Some decent USDCHF sell interest still between 0.9660-80 as I pointed out yesterday then 0.9700. Buyers at 0.9630 and 0.9600 again.
AUDUSD got a lift from China saying they won't be devaluing the Yuan but the market remains unconvinced on that and we've seen some sell interest return above 0.7250. More sellers still between 0.7280-00 with buyers now around 0.7220 then larger into 0.7200 and 0.7175-80. USDCAD has been on a downward path helped by some better manufacturing data and has now fallen through the key 1.2980 support area triggering stops/fresh sellers to post lows of 1.2944. Buyers now around 1.2930 and 1.2900 with sellers lining up around the pivotal 1.2980 area then 1.3000 and 1.3020.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing, so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.
Have a good day out there one and all.
Interbank Rate 08.50 BST GBPUSD 1.3160 EURUSD 1.1698 EURGBP 0.8897 GBPEUR 1.1238 USDJPY 112.37 USDCAD 1.2946 USDCHF 0.9645 GBPAUD 1.8158 GBPCAD 1.7037 GBPCHF 1.2692 GBPZAR 19.3800 GBPHKD 10.2030 EURHKD 9.0790
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