Wednesday 17 October 2018
Plenty of noises-off as PM May heads to Brussels today to try and reach some sort of deal but the odds of anything of note are lengthening, with the November summit, where any agreement was scheduled to be ratified, now looking ever more likely to be pushed back.
GBPUSD has been up to 1.3236 helped by stronger wages data but since been back down to 1.3161 on the uncertainty with UK inflation data also in the mix this morning at 09.30 BST. Sell interest now poised again at 1.3200 and 1.3230 then 1.3250 again with the larger resistance area/sell interest still between 1.3280-00 with barrier option interest at 1.3300 expected to be defended should we get close. Immediate demand still between 1.3150-60 as I highlighted yesterday with larger interest into the 1.3130 area then 1.3100, 1.3080 and 1.3050 still. I remain a GBP rally seller for the moment but with a little caution understandably and happy to buy back in the dips. Expect some algo-led movement if the data is wide of the mark but focus remains on Brussels.
EURGBP held 0.8750 and the rally helped cap GBPUSD as EURUSD too failed above 1.1620. Sellers poised now around 0.8800, 0.8830 and 0.8850. Bids/support between 0.8750-60 again then 0.8730 and 0.8700.
EURUSD posted highs of 1.1622 but was capped by the sell interest between 1.1620-30 that I mentioned here yesterday. The pair equally still has support around 1.1550 and that has held the retreat thus far.Decent bids/support still around 1.1550 then 1.1520, 1.1500 and 1.1485 with sellers now poised at 1.1580, 1.1600,then 1.1620-30 again and 1.1650 still.
USDJPY continues to range tightly between 112.00-50 amid varying levels of risk sentiment, with trade wars and now the Saudi/Kashoggi issue still playing out. Bids/demand still around 112.00,111.85 and 111.60 with sell interest into 112.50 still then larger between 112.80-113.00 where large option contracts roll off today. I remain a rally seller for the moment. USDCHF has also found buyers in the dips again helped by EURCHF and general US$ demand with the SNB never too far away either. EURCHF demand still around 1.1430 and 1.1380-1.1400 again with sellers between 1.1480-1.1500 still. USDCHF bids now at 0.9880 then 0.9860 and 0.9830 with sell interest around 0.9930 and 0.9960 again. I remain a dip buyer on both.
AUDUSD still remains tightly bound between 0.7100-50 with large option contract expiries today at 0.7120 helping to contain. Immediate demand still at 0.7100, 0.7080 then 0.7045-50 with sellers poised around 0.7150 again then 0.7180 and 0.7200. USDCAD has been down to 1.2920 after failing around 1.3000 but remain tightly bound since. Immediate sell interest now at 1.2960-65 then 1.2980 and 1.300 with buyers between 1.2920-30, 1.2900 and 1.2880.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.
Have a good day out there one and all.
Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX
Interbank Rate 08.02 BST
GBPUSD 1.3182
EURUSD 1.1567
EURGBP 0.8773
GBPEUR 1.1396
USDJPY 112.24
USDCAD 1.2959
USDCHF 0.9908
GBPAUD 1.8461
GBPCAD 1.7079
GBPCHF 1.3057
GBPZAR 18.7130
GBPHKD 10.2208
EURHKD 8.9687
Comments