Wednesday 13 September 2023
USD demand prevailing generally still as markets wait on today's key US CPI data at 12.30 GMT but this morning attention has turned to the Pound after some disappointing UK GDP data with July's monthly figure -0.5% versus -0.2 expected with all sectors in negative territority. Soggy weather and industrial strike action being cited but it's not looking good. Suffice to say the Pound has come under further pressure but steadying as I type.
Tomorrow we get the latest decision on rates and policy from the ECB and we've seen some EUR demand again ahead of the event while the jury remains out on JPY pairs which have steadied for the moment again amid some firmer risk tones.
Equities have gound a little support in Asia after retreating in NY trading while the second-guessing continues and WTI remains underpinned but capped around $89.00 this time after holding $87.80-00 then $88.20 in the retreats. Gold capping at $1915 now as equities steady again but finding support around $1908 as I type amid tight range prevailing. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension but also the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: 1.2500 providing the cap in late NY/early Asia after holding 1.2460 but pushed down to 1.2440 this morning on the UK GDP data. Some support a little USD profit taking ahead of US CPI data and better risk GBPJPY demand but sellers will remain poised. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. Ever-poised for re-sells.
EURGBP: Held the pivotal 0.8580-85 area yesterday and rallied to 0.8630 on the GBP supply post-GDP and general EUR demand. Capping atm with more two-way expected overall as markets make their mind up over CB expectations. ECB in focus tomorrow. GBPJPY: Capped at 184.20 after another hold of 183.00-20 yesterday which we've seen tested again this morning in the GBP data-led retreat but some better risk JPY supply helping to support. Sellers ever poised as I've been warning.
EURUSD: A hold of 1.0700-10 again in the past 24 hours but still capping into 1.0770 with traders cautious of today's US CPI versus ECB outcome tomorrow. I remain a rally seller overall meanwhile. USDJPY: A good hold of 146.80-00 yesterday after finally breaking through but capping at 147.40-50 and I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall with patience a virtue as ever. US CPI in focus today.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.31 BST
GBPUSD 1.2460
EURUSD 1.0743
EURGBP 0.8622
GBPEUR 1.1600
USDJPY 147.28
GBPJPY 183.53
GBPCAD 1.6896
GBPCHF 1.1131
GBPZAR 23.5971
GBPHKD 9.7063
USDCHF 0.8918
EURCHF 0.9582
EURHKD 8.3675
AUDUSD 0.6412
NZDUSD 0.5900
USDCAD 1.3560
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