Thursday 7 March 2024
More USD supply notable in the past 24 hours in the wake of weaker US data and lower bond yields and with markets expecting June rate cut from the US Fed after Chair Powell was indeed less hawkish yesterday as I warned here. USDJPY is leading the way helped by increasing speculation again that the BOJ will tighten soon.
The BOC yesterday duly kept rates on hold but less dovish than markets anticipated. Next CB off the rank is the ECB today who will also remain cautious. The UK Spring Budget duly came and went as predicted/leaked and had little impact on GBP as expected.
Equities have been in retreat again amid further profit-taking/re-assessment but remain underpinned overall and off their lows as I type. WTI capping at $80.00 this time after an extended rally on softer USD tones but holding $78.00 in the retreat this morning as the second-guessing on Red Sea/Gaza and global economy. Gold has continued its impressive move higher to post fresh record highs of $2161 after holding $2140 and underpinned overall on the belief that FOMC will start cutting rates in June.
GBPUSD: Failure around 1.2760 this time after holding 1.2700-10 amid the USD supply but GBPJPY selling still helping to cap. Sellers remain poised, as do I, for further opportunity when momentum fades as we continue to range overall.EURGBP flows in play today through ECB. EURGBP: Basing around 0.8550 this morning after capping at 0.8565 as the BOE/ECB debates continues. ECB looming later. GBPJPY: Testing 188.50 support line this time in the extended retreat from 190.30-50 amid the JPY demand. Expecting some support as we're ranging overall still.
EURUSD: Support around 1.0870 after those large options rolled and amid the USD supply but sellers capping above 1.0910. I remain a rally seller. ECB looming. USDJPY: Capping at 149.50-60 yesterday and an extended retreat into 147.80 this morning amid the USD supply. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall with jury still out on BOJ.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Comentários