Thursday 17 August 2023
Concerns over the Chinese, and hence global, economy continue and we've seen further weakness in equity markets and psitive USD tones helped yesterday by stronger than expected US data again with 10-year bond yields rising further and commodities taking another hit.
Equities are turning up a little this morning on a bit of profit-taking after yesterday's retreat with dip buyers/bulls still keen to take advntage despite the fragile tones while WTI has found a base this time at $78.65 after capping at the lower $80.00 area as the uncertainty continues. Gold currently finding support around $1890 again after capping around $1905 this time amid the general commodity/metals weakness as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on Ukraine/Russia but also tension in the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: Holding 1.2710 in the latest retreats after capping at 1.2760-70 in yesterday's CPI-led rally. EURGBP retreat helping to underpin along with inherent GBPJPY dip demand despite the softer risk tones helping to cap. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. EURGBP: Finding a cap at 0.850-60 this time as GBP remains bid and now posting fresh recent lows of 0.8540. More two-way expected overall as core pairs make their mind up but sellers prevailing for the moment.
GBPJPY: A good hold of 185.60-80 this time as core pairs both find a bid. Sellers still lurking amid the fragile risk tones overall but coming second for the moment.
EURUSD: Holding support at 1.0860 yesterday but capping at 1.0900 this time amid some general EUR weakness with ECB hike expectations reducing amid soggy data. Large option interest today at 1.0940-50. I prefer the rally-sell side still.
USDJPY: Now underpinned into 145.80-00 amid the USD demand but sellers prevailing at 146.50-60 this time amid BOJ/MOF intervention fears and some USD supply returning. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall but with patience a virtue as ever. Equally dip buyers finding results too of course as the pair remains underpinned overall.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs plus 1-2-1 mentoring srvices from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.45 BST
GBPUSD 1.2733
EURUSD 1.0880
EURGBP 0.8545
GBPEUR 1.1702
USDJPY 146.22
GBPJPY 186.16
GBPCAD 1.7211
GBPCHF 1.1176
GBPZAR 24.3688
GBPHKD 9.9190
USDCHF 0.8797
EURCHF 0.9572
EURHKD 8.4777
AUDUSD 0.6400
NZDUSD 0.5924
USDCAD 1.3527
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