Wednesday 10 January 2024
Yesterday I reported on some USD supply again but noted some USD demand returning as I typed and as the jury remains out with higher US bond yields underpinning the Greenback again for the moment but all ranging still.
Meanwhile the Ukraine/Russia war and the Red Sea disruptions/fallout continue to grab headlines while the ongoing Middle East Israel/Hamas back-story casts its own shadow over markets and yet, imnho, to reveal its full impact. Data wise attention still on US CPI tomorrow.
Equities fell then rallied in NY amid some better risk tones then dropping back in Asia but rising again as I type with the jury still out on the speed of cuts by FOMC et al. WTI found some support at $71.00 this time amid the Red Sea concerns but capping at $72.80-00 with sellers poised still. Gold ranging tightly still now between $2022-42 for the moment as the jury remains out.
GBPUSD: Capping into 1.2740 yesterday but holding 1.2680-85 support area in the retreat and now back up through 1.2725 this morning as I type helped by some GBPJPY demand.I remain poised for further rally sells when momentum fades but patience still required. EURGBP: Capping at 0.8620 again but holding 0.8600 in the latest retreat as the CB jury remains out. GBPJPY: Better risk tones saw the pair hold 182.80 and now back up through 184.00 again. We can expect rally sellers to remain poised amid all the uncertainty in these ever fickle markets.
EURUSD: Support coming in at 1.0910 but capping at 1.0950-60 this time. Large option interest today in play plus ongoing speculation that the ECB is under pressure again to cut sooner rather than later. I remain a rally seller.USDJPY: Finding support around 143.60 yesterday then 144.50 amid the firmer USD/better risk double whammy but capping at 145.20 so far. A few rally re-sells placed as we're ranging overall still for the moment as conjecture remains on BOJ normalization.I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall and remain poised when momentum fades but caution still required for the moment.
For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.52 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2716
EURUSD 1.0943
EURGBP 0.8605
GBPEUR 1.1620
USDJPY 144.97
GBPJPY 184.36
GBPCAD 1.6993
GBPCHF 1.0837
GBPZAR 23.6750
GBPHKD 9.9011
USDCHF 0.8525
EURCHF 0.9327
EURHKD 8.5207
AUDUSD 0.6707
NZDUSD 0.6251
USDCAD 1.3371
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