Tuesday 29 August 2023
FX pairs ranging still after yesterday's UK holiday gave everyone an excuse for an extended week-end and the second guessing continues with little of note out of Jackson Hole with the hawkish tones from US Fed Chairman Powell mostly as expected and as I warned prior.
Month-end USD flow signals point to mild buying interest with strongest versus CAD but also some EUR corp demand again too.
Equities ranging while WTI has held at $79.50-60 in the latest retreats having rallied to $80.80 yesterday as the uncertainty continues. Gold finding support around $1910-15 again yesterday but natural sellers still prevailing between $1920-25 as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on Ukraine/Russia but also tension in the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: Support at 1.2560 helped by better risk GBPJPY demand but failing to make much headway higher for the moment. I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall, ever-poised to sell rallies still. EURGBP: Finding a cap at 0.8585-90 but holding 0.8560-65 still with more two-way expected overall as core pairs make their mind up. GBPJPY: Capping at 185.00 but holding 184.50 amid the steadier risk tones for the moment and some natural JPY supply. Sellers will remain poised as risk remains fragile.
EURUSD: Holding support into 1.0800 in latest retreats where we also have decent option interest today but equally capping at the old 1.0830-40 resistance. I remain a rally seller. USDJPY: Capping at 146.50-60 for the moment but equally support coming in at 146.309 as we continue to range tightly. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall but with patience a virtue as ever. I still regard the risk being to the downside but no denying its underpinned for the moment.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs and 1-2-1 mentoring sessions for traders from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 07.51 BST
GBPUSD 1.2600
EURUSD 1.0811
EURGBP 0.8570
GBPEUR 1.1667
USDJPY 146.40
GBPJPY 184.64
GBPCAD 1.7136
GBPCHF 1.1152
GBPZAR 23.3175
GBPHKD 9.8154
USDCHF 0.8846
EURCHF 0.9562
EURHKD 8.4130
AUDUSD 0.6445
NZDUSD 0.5925
USDCAD 1.3598
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