Wednesday 5 April 2023
Ever-fickle markets but we've definitely seen another round of USD supply in the past 24 hour with USDJPY in rapid retreat again helped by some soggy risk tones returning after the US JOLTS jobs data yesterday. Meanwhile the RBNZ surprised markets with a 50bps rate hike that has seen NZD soar across the board.
Equities underpinned again for the moment after yesterday's rapid retreat and the same for WTI after another hold of $79.50 yesterday and then $80.50 again. Gold saw an extended rally through $2020 yesterday amid the soggy risk tones and holding there since after finding strong support at the $1975 area I highlighted. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China tensions in the mix too and now of course the OPEC+ decision fallout.
GBPUSD: Yesterday's break higher finally came to a halt at 1.2525 as EURGBP held the key 0.8730 level and GBPJPY turned lower again.Support coming in at 1.2460-70 so far though as the USD supply continues. Rallies duly sold again and some pips banked but caution still required. EURGBP: Those 20th March lows of 0.8730 I highlighted certainly played out and a test of 0.8780 resistance hs helped cap GBPUSD as EURUSD ramps higher. Support coming in at 0.8760 now and expect more two-way business. GBPJPY: That 166.50 resistance area helped cap and we've seen a retreat through 164.00 this morning fragile risk returns and markets remain fickle
EURUSD: Decent support building at 1.0900 again where we have huge option expiry interest too and now 1.0940-50 holding this morning with more options nearby but capping 1.0965-75 after yesterday's extended rally amid the USD supply. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall but caution required as its all very fickle still. USDJPY: Duly failing at 133.00-10 amid the general USD supply but initially finding some support at 132.50 on early better risk tones until the JOLTS-led slap lower. Some pips gratefully banked into 131.50 proving patience a virtue again and I continue to favour rally sells albeit caution still required.
More analysis and details on order flows across various pairs available from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.32 BST
GBPUSD 1.2492
EURUSD 1.0960
EURGBP 0.8771
GBPEUR 1.1395
USDJPY 131.50
GBPJPY 164.22
GBPCAD 1.6797
GBPCHF 1.1294
GBPZAR 22.2856
GBPHKD 9.7143
EURCHF 0.9913
EURHKD 8.5212
AUDUSD 0.6714
NZDUSD 0.6337
USDCAD 1.3460
USDCHF 0.9044
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