Monday 17 April 2023
Some US Dollar demand on Friday and most of Asia but all ranging still overall with markets still second-guesing the FOMCin next month's policy decision. Fed's Waller helped underpin with some hawkish rhetoric with US Michigan sentioment data helping to balance out some weaker Retail Sales figures.
Equities are currently flatlining after Friday's rise and fall but remain underpinned overall amid softening rate hike tones while WTI has capped into $82.80-00 this time after holding $81.50-60 as the jury remains out generally. Gold had a soggy day on Friday after failing into into $2050 with longs taking some profit as I noted here but underlying dip demand still amid the globl uncertainties both financially and otherwise. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China/Taiwan tensions in the mix too and now ongoing Middle East tensions. Oh, and North Korea casting a shadow too.
GBPUSD: Capping into 1.2525 on Friday and a steady retreat amid the USD demand but finding good support into 1.2380 so far. I remain a rally-seller on this pair overall while we continue to range.
EURGBP: Support coming in now at 0.8830 with GBPUSD retreat outstripping EURUSD but failing above 0.8860 so far. Expect more two-way business still but looks underpinned as I said on Friday. GBPJPY: Capping at 166.60 this time after holding 165.80 in the retreats as the jury remains out. Markets remain fickle with sellers still poised when sentiment softens.
EURUSD: Failing again into the decent resistance at 1.1080 that I highlighted on Friday and a decent retreat into 1.0960 amid the USD demand. Plenty of ECB chatter on 25bps vs 50bps rate hike continues to keep markets second guessing.I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall but equally a case for buying dips still as we continue to range. Large option interest at 1.1050 in play. USDJPY: Failing at 134.25 this time but a good hold of 133.00 on Friday amid the USD demand.Some jobbing pips banked again and I continue to favour rally sells overall with GBPUSD and EURUSD shorts helping to hedge.
More detailed analysis across a variety of currency pairs from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.30 BST
GBPUSD 1.2421
EURUSD 1.1000
EURGBP 0.8854
GBPEUR 1.1292
USDJPY 134.00
GBPJPY 166.34
GBPCAD 1.6554
GBPCHF 1.1075
GBPZAR 22.4785
GBPHKD 9.6596
USDCHF 0.8923
EURCHF 0.9815
EURHKD 8.5575
AUDUSD 0.6716
NZDUSD 0.6207
USDCAD 1.3345
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