Tuesday 8 August 2023
US Dollar demand again amid mixed risk tones
Good two-way business overall across all markets in the past 24 hours but overall we've seen some Greenback dip demand again with risk tones variable as the jury remains out ahead of Thursday's US CPI data. Chinese trade data showed a fall in both imports and exports and adding to a little less appetite for risk.
Equities rallied strongly again in NY trading but retreating a little in Asia albeit currently off their lows as the second-guessing continues. WTI has found a cap this time at $82.30 and in steady decline to $80.70 as I type helped by that soggy Chinese trade data showing global slowdown even if headline was better than expected. Gold found support into $1930 this morning after yesterday's $1942 cap as the jury remains out and tight ranges prevail. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on Ukraine/Russia but also tension in the Middle East among other areas of conflict.
GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2790 again and retreating below 1.2750 this morning as the USD buying returns and I remain bearish on the UK and GBP overall. Option contracts in play at 1.2750. EURGBP: Now finding a cap at 0.8625 but equally holding 0.8600-10 in the retreats so far with more two-way expected as core pairs make their mind up.GBPJPY: A good hold of 181.50 as equities rallied yesterday but sellers capping at the old 183.00 resistance amid the mixed risk tones.
EURUSD: Capping at 1.1000-15 in latest rallies helped by the USD demand returning but holding 1.0975 as we continue to trade tightly. I prefer the rally-sell side still. USDJPY: Now underpinned at the old 142.00-20 support but sellers prevailing at 143.40 helped by some softer risk JPY demand. I remain a rally seller as preferred side but with patience a virtue as ever. EURJPY: Support at 156.50 but sellers prevailing at 157.75-80 so far. Underpinned overall still but some two-way business amid mixed risk tones and core pair flucation
USDCHF: Support at 0.8720 in the latest retreat this morning and some pips banked after the fall from 0.8770. Good jobbing pips to be had still in narrow range and I remain a rally seller overall. EURCHF: Good support again around 0.9600 but rally sellers still poised between 0.9620-30 as we continue to range tightly here too.
AUDUSD: Support around 0.6540 now broken after the retreat from 0.6575 on some USD demand returning and worrying Chinese trade data. Some pips banked and I remain a rally seller overall. Options in play at 0.6500 and below should we retreat further.GBPAUD: Underpinned around 1.9430-50 now amid the extended AUDUSD retreat. NZDUSD: Similar back story to AUDUSD yet again with support around 0.6070 now broken after capping at 0.6110 this time.
USDCAD: Support coming in at 1.3360-80 this time on the firmer USD/softer oil double whammy but finding sellers at 1.3430-40 so far. Expect more two-way business amid the oil, USD and risk variables.
Let's continue to be careful out there.
Interbank rates: 08.47 BST
GBPUSD 1.2753
EURUSD 1.0978
EURGBP 0.8608
GBPEUR 1.1615
USDJPY 143.15
GBPJPY 182.56
GBPCAD 1.7110
GBPCHF 1.1143
GBPZAR 23.9200
GBPHKD 9.9323
USDCHF 0.8747
EURCHF 0.9604
EURHKD 8.5549
AUDUSD 0.6524
NZDUSD 0.6058
USDCAD 1.3423
Comentários