Wednesday 25 October 2023
A mixed bag of USD and risk sentiment in the past 24 hours amid the Middle East back-story and traders still second-guessing central banks. USD demand returning after Monday's selling and USDJPY testing 150.00 again as markets remain ever-fickle.
Stronger than expected Aussie CPI data has brought RBA hikes into play again, with markets fully pricing one in by year-end. BOC rate decision arrives today with a hike not being ruled out. German IFO data just out stronger against recent trend of other economic numbers published.
Equities performed ok yesterday but now off their highs albeit finding a bit of support again this morning with the jury still deliberating. WTI holding $83.00 this morning after a retreat from $.00 this time amid the uncertain global economic picture too. Gold has found support around $1968 this time after capping at $1978 with natural sellers ever poised still. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension and now with the Middle East sadly to the fore.
GBPUSD: Support now at 1.2130 being tested after yesterday's solid retreat from 1.2300 amid the USD demand returning and those recent soggy GBP tones too. I remain poised for further re-sells when momentum fades. Options in play again today .
EURGBP: Holding 0.8680 and now up through 0.8720 as core pairs fluctuate but GBP looks a little soggy again. Expect more of the same. GBPJPY: Holding 182.00 as I type after capping at 183.50 then 183.00 with sellers ever poised still amid the fragile risk.
EURUSD: 1.06580 support being tested at the moment after capping at 1.0650 amid the USD demand yesterday. I remain a rally seller overall. USDJPY: 149.60-70 the current base with rallies capping into 150.00 again with MOF intervention fears still there plus some JPY risk off demand again too. Some option interest again in play. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.
For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.45 BST
GBPUSD 1.2148
EURUSD 1.0591
EURGBP 0.8717
GBPEUR 1.1469
USDJPY 149.88
GBPJPY 182.07
GBPCAD 1.6697
GBPCHF 1.0856
GBPZAR 23.2088
GBPHKD 9.4571
USDCHF 0.8943
EURCHF 0.9469
EURHKD 8.2450
AUDUSD 0.6357
NZDUSD 0.5842
USDCAD 1.3757
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