Thursday 27 June 2024
The Greenback remains underpinned highlighted by USDJPY posting fresh highs of 160.87 but with JPY selling too overal on the cross dips, along with the carry flows, and therefore underpinning core pairs as I've been warning. The threat of MOF/BOJ intervention remains real but only a couple of wobbles so far.
Seems that the month-end USD-negative flow signals are not as strong as was first calculated given the price action this week both in FX and equities. Data slate today features US PCE and Durable Goods orders while BOE publish their latest Financial Stability Report today at 09.30 GMT with presser from Bailey after.
Equities retreated then bounced and remain underpinned albeit with sellers still lurking. WTI seeing good dip support again but capping at $81.30-50 with a hold of $80.00 this time with more two-way expected. Bids: $80.00-20, $79.50-60, $79.00, $78.50-60. Offers: $80.80-00, $81.30-50, $81.80-00, $82.30-50. Gold now finding a base at $2295 after failing at $2325 then $2305 this time. Dip demand should remain but profit-takers/sellers still poised.
GBPUSD: Support coming in at 1.2610-15 after capping into 1.2680 amid the USD demand. Cross flows still very much in play. EURGBP: Holding 0.8435-45 with EURUSD dip demand/option interest outweighing that of GBPUSD but capping at 0.8465 amid the BOE/ECB conjecture. EU politics still casting a shadow. GBPJPY: Holding 202.30-50 in latest retreats amid the general JPY selling but capping above 203.10 in the extended rally.
EURUSD: Capping at 1.0700 where we have large option interest yet again today but a hold of 1.0665 in yesterday's retreat as we continue to range tightly. Cross flows in play still too. USDJPY: Support coming in at 159.60 then 160.00 once broken amid the renewed USD demand and ongoing JPY supply. MOF/BOJ intervention fears remain.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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