Friday 2 November 2018
It's been a notable USD selling scenario as the new month gets underway and after a couple of Brexit-related wobbles again yesterday we've seen concerted gains for the Pound as a stand out.
GBPUSD fell back to test 1.2750-60 support lines and we saw good 2-way business until 1.2830 and 1.2850 broke and then it was a case of up up and away to highs so far of 1.3039.Sellers now poised at 1.3050 then 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3120 and 1.3150.Immediate demand at 1.3000 then 1.2980, 1.2960, 1.2930 and 1.2900.I did sell the initial rallies yesterday but once we had the BOE decision (rate and vote unchanged as expected but lower GDP forecasts) I bought back in the dips and been happy to watch and see what prevails. I remain a GBP bear overall and rally seller for the moment while still respecting any positive Brexit news of course.
EURGBP has fallen further on the general GBP demand and has now posted lows of 0.8764 (GBPEUR up to 1.1411) but we're steadying near the lows for the moment. More buyers into 0.8750 then 0.8730 and 0.8700. Sellers now poised into 0.8800, 0.8830 and 0.8850.
EURUSD rallied to 1.1400 with large option expiry interest there proving to be both magnet and capper with general USD demand also in play. Since those options expired we've rallied further to post 1.1443. Bids/support now around 1.1400 then larger at 1.1380, 1.1350. 1.1330 and 1.1300 where the barrier option still provides defence. Sellers poised into 1.1450 still then 1.1480-00. More sizeable option interest rolling off today at 1.1400 will help contain the range.
USDJPY has fallen back further to test 112.50 support but the on-going dip demand I've been warning about is still evident.Immediate sell interest now at 113.00 then 113.20 and 113.50 still with larger between 113.80-00.Immediate bids/demand at 112.50 then 112.30 and 112.00 still. I remain a rally seller but happy to buy back in the dips.
USDCHF sellers have once again prevailed and we've been back down to test 1.0000 this morning,but remains underpinned overall with EURCHF still finding support in the dips. Bids/support now at 1.1400 then 1.1380 still with more behind at 1.1350, 1.1330 and 1.1300 with sellers poised at 1.1450-60 then larger at 1.1480-00. USDCHF bids still at 1.0000 and 0.9980 with sellers poised now at 1.0030, 1.0050 then 1.0080-1.0100 again. Happy to trade both sides of the price action at the moment but preferring the dip buys still.
AUDUSD has continued to post decent gains helped by the general USD selling and positive rhetoric from the US-China trade spat. Immediate bids/support at 0.7200 then 0.7180 and 0.7150 with sellers poised again around 0.7250, then 0.7275 and 0.7300. USDCAD has fallen back further on the general US$ supply to test 1.3050.More bids at 1.3030 and 1.3000 again with sellers now poised around 1.3080 then larger at 1.3100 and 1.3130.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so get your orders in to take full advantage of these moves.
Tomorrow sees the mighty Shrimpers of Southend United travel north again in a bid to get back on track amid perhaps the most serious injury crisis we've had in many a year. Certainly a concern but I believe the boys can dig deep enough to weather the storm.
A stunning time had by all last night at London's Royal Albert Hall where my current fave band, Public Service Broadcasting, played their biggest gig to date. If you're not aware of their work do yourself a big big favour and check them out. This has been, er, a public service broadcast.
Have a great week-end out there one and all.
Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX
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