Wednesday 12 April 2023
Yes folks, it's the next algo-popping event up the ramp at 12.30 GMT when we see the latest US CPI data and markets will jump around on hot coals second-guesing the US Fed in next month's policy decision. Expectations are for a continued decline but not rushing lower anytime soon with core prices still a concern.
Today also sees the latest Bank of Canada policy announcement but likely to produce less of an impact with the rate change pause continuing amid cautious tones. We've since seen some two-way business in tight ranges again although USDJPY is still looking a little underpinned helped by better risk sentiment JPY supply.
Equities are off retreat lows once again and remain underpinned overall as Europe gets going (a now familiar story) while WTI is also on the rise through $81.50 once more after yet another hold around $79.50 yesterday (an equally familiar story as I've been noting and has become a real line in the sand). Gold has been trying to crawl back above $2020 but failing as I type. Ukraine/Russia war continues to be the main geo-political elephant in the room with ongoing US/China/Taiwan tensions in the mix too and now ongoing Middle East tensions.
Remember, focus on the price action and let the algos do the heavy lifting/dropping amid all the second-guessing. The important thing is to identify your preferred risk/reward entry/exit levels prior and be poised to execute.
GBPUSD: Capping into 1.2460 yesterday but finding good support into 1.2400 this time helped by GBPJPY demand again. Jury remains out on the Greenback but I remain a rally-seller on this pair overall while we continue to range. EURGBP: Tightly bound again with 0.8800 still capping as I type after support coming in at 0.8750-60 again. Expect more two-way business still with option interest in play too. GBPJPY: A base now at 165.30-50 amid the better risk and soggy JPY tones as markets remain fickle with sellers still poised when sentiment softens.
EURUSD: Support building at 1.0900-10 now with large option expiries in play there through the US CPI and EUR demand on the crosses. I remain a rally seller as my preferred side overall but equally a case for buying dips as we range tightly. USDJPY: Failing at 134.00-10 this time where we also have decent option interest rolling off today after finding good support at 133.00 and 133.50. JPY supply notable too.
More detailed analysis across a variety of pairs available from mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.15 BST
GBPUSD 1.2422
EURUSD 1.0922
EURGBP 0.8792
GBPEUR 1.1372
USDJPY 133.73
GBPJPY 166.15
GBPCAD 1.6717
GBPCHF 1.1209
GBPZAR 22.8606
GBPHKD 9.6715
EURCHF 0.9864
EURHKD 8.5078
AUDUSD 0.6655
NZDUSD 0.6187
USDCAD 1.3459
USDCHF 0.9030
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