Friday 3 November 2023
Yesterday the BOE left rates on hold as expected and with cautious rhetoric on future policy similar to the US Fed leaving all options open as they focus on inflation. The Pound has enjoyed some support since but still ranging tightly overall. USD supply notable again as US bond yields ease.
The tragic Middle East back-story sadly continues but markets are now also focussed on the latest key US NFP jobs/wages data at 12.30 GMT as we end a busy week.
Equities rallied in NY trading as bond yields fell amid expectations that the Fed is at the end of the hiking cycle despite them leaving the door open for another one. Asia and early Europe has seen a flat line at the top of the rally. WTI still supported into $80.00 then $81.50 but equally still with sellers lurking at $83.00 as we post $82.75 this morning with the jury still out.Gold capping at $1990 this time as risk firmed a little with natural sellers ever poised still but has found support around the $1980 area we we continue to range tightly. Geopolitical concerns still very much a threat to market stability with focus on increasing Ukraine/Russia tension and now with the Middle East sadly to the fore.
GBPUSD: Support at 1.2160 in yesterday's extended retreat from the 1.2225 rally post BOE as we continue to range tightly amongst all the unknowns but nudging higher again amid some USD supply.I remain poised for further entries when momentum fades. Options in play again. EURGBP: Holding 0.8700 yesterday and this morning after a cap at 0.8735 as GBPUSD caps above 1.2200. Ranging still overall amid core pair fluctuations and BOE. GBPJPY: Holding 183.00 again but equally capping at 183.60-70 once more with rally sellers ever poised still amid the fragile risk.
EURUSD: Support at 1.0600-10 this time in the retreat after capping at 1.0665 as we continue to range. I remain a rally seller overall.USDJPY: Another retreat and hold of 149.80 amid USD supply before finding some better risk JPY supply but capping into 150.50 again. MOF/BOJ intervention fears still there but should remain underpinned for the moment.I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels but with patience a virtue as ever.
For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 07.15 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2206
EURUSD 1.0630
EURGBP 0.8707
GBPEUR 1.1482
USDJPY 150.25
GBPJPY 183.39
GBPCAD 1.6706
GBPCHF 1.1050
GBPZAR 22.4286
GBPHKD 9.5038
USDCHF 0.9053
EURCHF 0.9623
EURHKD 8.2785
AUDUSD 0.6442
NZDUSD 0.5809
USDCAD 1.3735
Comments