Thursday 16 November 2023
Yesterday's key US data saw Retail Sales in negative territory but not as bad as feared and softer PPI data but unlike the previous day we saw some USD demand return amid rising bond yields after Tuesday's sell off. If nothing else it proves thar markets once again got over-extended with some correction required as the second-guessing/dancing on hot coals continues.
Litle on the data slate today but CB speakers include Fed's Waller, Williams and Mester, ECB's Lagarde and De Guindos and BOE's Ramsden. The ongoing Middle East back-story sadly continues meanwhile and casts its own shadow over markets but still not driving them atm.Ignore at your peril though.
Equities fell yesterday as US bond yields rose but finding a little support in Asia and underpinned as European trading gets underway. WTI retreated too and has tested $75.80 this morniung after capping around the previous support $77.00-50 areain as sellers prevail again with global demand concerns continuing. Gold is testing $1970 as I type after holding $1955 this time as the jury remains out.
GBPUSD: Duly capping at 1.2500 yesterday as the Greenbck found some demand again after the over-extended move and testing 1.2380 this morning but holding so far helped by some GBPJPY better-risk demand. I remain poised for further rally sells when momentum fades.Some options in play potentially at 1.2360. EURGBP: Support at 0.8710-20 and now up through the 0.8730 resistance area to post 0.8765 as GBP sellers prevail. More two-way expected amid the core pair fluctuation. Options tomorrow at 0.8750 to keep in mind. GBPJPY: Holding 187.20 amid firmer risk sentiment after capping at 188.00 this time. Sellers still poised amid possible MOF/BOJ intervention but Underpinned still for the moment
EURUSD: Support at 1.0830 yesterday and today after the 1.0890 caps. I remain a rally seller overall still. Option interest today/tomorrow again in play. USDJPY: A good hold of 150.00-20 amid USD demand returning and better risk JPY supply plus large option interest rolling off down there today. I remain a rally seller as preferred side overall at these elevated levels. MOF/BOJ cast a shadow still. Decent options in play.
For more detailed analysis across a variety of pairs email mike@mspfx.co.uk
Interbank rates: 08.35 GMT
GBPUSD 1.2385
EURUSD 1.0849
EURGBP 0.8759
GBPEUR 1.1416
USDJPY 151.34
GBPJPY 187.46
GBPCAD 1.6988
GBPCHF 1.1030
GBPZAR 22.5292
GBPHKD 9.6596
USDCHF 0.8887
EURCHF 0.9643
EURHKD 8.4585
AUDUSD 0.6490
NZDUSD 0.5989
USDCAD 1.3695
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