Monday 25 March 2024
Friday saw some further US Dollar demand albeit amid softer bond yields after a week of Central Bank decisions and deliberations that will have markets still second-guessing. Greenback underpinned overall this morning but some supply around key levels on GBPUSD and USDJPY for example where we've also had Japanese verbal intervention helping to keep a lid on things at the key 151.80-00 area.
Not too much on the agenda this week data/event wise but month/quarter-end flows and Easter holidays ahead will add their own vagaries. The Ukraine/Russia war and Middle East Israel/Hamas/Houthi/Hezbollah/Red Sea tensions still cast their own shadow. Remember to identify your preferred risk reward levels and let the algos do their thing along with the natural and speculative flows. Don't get greedy or over-analyse. These are tight ranges and will produce regular jobbing opportunities therefore while the jury remains out.
Equities remain underpinned overall on the firm belief that interest rates will be coming down at some stage soon but off Friday's highs after another profit-taking retreat. WTI has traded tightly $80-40-$81.40 amid the second-guessing on Red Sea/Gaza, CBs and global economy. Gold holding $2155-60 again after the retreat from $2180 with some profit-taking also evident as we head into the week-end.
GBPUSD: Capping at 1.2620-30 amid the BOE fallout and USD demand double whammy but still finding technical support around 1.2580-90. I remain poised for further re-sells when momentum fades. EURGBP: Sellers duly prevailing at 0.8600 with ECB cuts also on the agenda but holding 0.8575-80 atm. GBPJPY: A further retreat into 190.30 amid the GBP supply/JPY demand double whammy after capping at 191.00. Sellers will remain poised as I've been warning.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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