Friday 3 April 2020
We're seeing a few range boundaries creaking under some renwed USD demand in Asia and this morning as Europe gets underway along with soft PMI data pushing the Euro even lower. UK Services PMI just out also keeping pressure on the Pound.
Yesterday's highlight, and some, was a Trump tweet that suggested an agreement between Saudi Arabia/OPEC and Russia to cut oil production by 10-15m barrels. Aimed at nipping some reported cheap oil reserve buying by China in the bud ? Certainly a strange one that had algos cranking oil and commodity currencies sharply higher before a reality check retreat. Oil still posted its largest one-day gains since 1991 and there are reports that there will be discussions on Monday that are helping to maintain a bid tone this morning but it promises to be a wild ride still.
Today sees the release of the latest US NFP and wages report that comes on top of yesterday's huge 6.65mln weekly jobless claims. Global USD demand and US Fed still pumping up the volume though largely shrugging off the negatives for the moment at least. Crazy days indeed.
GBPUSD had another look at 1.2475 before retreating once again to break that 1.2350 line to test 1.2300. EURGBP has fallen further to 0.8737 (GBPEUR up to 1.1444) and that EURGBP softness has helped provide some support for GBPUSD again too on the way down but reversing as I type.GBPJPY found support at 132.60 but since capped around 134.00 amid some risk-off but underpinned for the moment by USDJPY rebounding from another test of 107.00 to post 108.23.
I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever. Obviously still seems to be some natural demand so patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always.
USDJPY has found some decent dip demand again helped by that oil spike yesterday and now tested offers /res at 108.30 while EURJPY has dropped further on the general EUR supply and now posted new recent lows of 116.36 before bouncing but sellers still poised.EURUSD continues its journey lower and now tested 1.0780 support after that soggy PMI data earlier.USDCHF has based at 0.9660 and since rallied to 0.9773 as I type as EURUSD falls and helped by some EURCHF dip demand still at 1.0540 with the SNB still in the frame.
AUDUSD had another spike yesterday but this time on that oil news which gave a general lift to all commodity currencies but we've retreated again to now post 0.6014 as I type. USDCAD tumbled to test 1.4080 again on the oil price reaction but since traded quite tightly as the questions on that 10-15m barrel cut continue.
Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.
Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets that you might need some further help with.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Make sure you get some rest over the week-end.
Interbank rates: 08.40 BST
GBPUSD 1.2338
EURUSD 1.0802
EURGBP 0.8747
GBPEUR 1.1421
GBPAUD 2.0433
GBPCAD 1.7454
GBPJPY 133.43
GBPZAR 23.0005
GBPHKD 9.5594
USDJPY 108.12
USDZAR 18.7358
EURJPY 116.83
EURCHF 1.0548
EURHKD 8.3701
AUDUSD 0.6038
USDCAD 1.4138
USDCHF 0.9762
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