Wednesday 13 October 2021
Variable risk tones in the past 24 hours has seen some good two-way business across the various markets, including FX of course, as we wait on US CPI data and FOMC Minutes today.
UK GDP and production data came in better than expected overall and that's helped to underpin GBP again after another retreat albiet contained in the current tight ranges.
Amid all this general market uncertainty I will repeat that patience and discipline in trading are key, as ever, and not being greedy. Ignore the noise and countless amount of "analysts" trying to explain the reasons for moves. Just focus on the price action and decide what presents value or doesn't, and if in doubt, keep out.
GBPUSD: Yesterday's retreat duly stopped at 1.3565-70 per my tweet and capped initially at 1.3620 before breaking a little higher only to test 1.3570 again this morning in Asia. Pips banked in the retreat again. I remain a rally seller but respecting the ongoing dip demand as I've been warning while keeping an eye on EURGBP and GBPJPY as always.
Offers: 1.3635, 1.3655-60, 1.3680-85, 1.3700, 1.3725-30, 1.3750,1.3780, 1.3800
Bids: 1.3600, 1.3585, 1.3565-70, 1.3550, 1.3535, 1.3520, 1.3500, 1.3480-85, 1.3465, 1.3450,
EURGBP: 0.8470 bids providing support still after another failure above 0.8500 as we continue to range and GBP continues to tease. GBPJPY: Good support now at 154.00 and up through 154.50 to post 154.68 as I type. I still feel it'll get top-heavy again but respecting current market sentiment.
I remain a GBP rally seller across the pairs but being patient as ever. These are risk sentiment markets and ever fickle so good/tight position management essential.
EURUSD: 1.1540 support gave way to post lows on 1.1524 but now now helped by the firmer risk/softer USD dip demand again but rally sellers remain poised around the 1.1580 area still. The pair still finds itself in the middle of cross-flow action and variable risk plays. USDJPY: Tightly bound at the moment amid the variable risk/USD tones generally. Underpinned at 113.20 but equally finding sellers above 113.60. EURJPY: New support line in the sand at 130.80 now having broken higher amid the firmer risk tones and core pair dip demand. Sellers around 131.20 which we're testing again as I type. USDCHF: 0.9280 support in range after another failure above 0.9310 this time with the SNB ever vigilant.EURCHF: 1.0710 held with SNB shadow ever present on this and USDCHF and helped by the firmer risk tones but rallies into 1.1740 being sold.
AUDUSD: Finding a line in the sand now at 0.7330 after a failure at 0.7380 with good two-way business amid the variable risk/commodity tones. USDCAD: 1.2485 now capping the rallies helped by some renewed CADJPY demand but holding a big line 1.2440 so far. Option interest building nearby too.
Let's continue to be careful out there in all things. Staying safe must be our main priority still.
Interbank rates: 08.07 BST
GBPUSD 1.3605
EURUSD 1.1547
EURGBP 0.8486
GBPEUR 1.1782
GBPJPY 154.49
GBPCAD 1.6962
GBPZAR 20.2795
GBPHKD 10.6177
USDJPY 113.54
EURJPY 131.12
EURCHF 1.0732
EURHKD 9.0118
AUDUSD 0.7337
USDCAD 1.2462
USDCHF 0.9295
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