Friday 28 June 2024
The Greenback remains underpinned despite mixed US data yesterday highlighted by USDJPY posting fresh highs of 161.29 overnight but with JPY selling too overall on the cross dips, along with the carry flows, and therefore underpinning core pairs as I've been warning along with options interest. The threat of MOF/BOJ intervention remains real but only verbal action thus far.
Some two-way business yesterday with a little USD supply emerging but since reversed. As I warned, it seems that the month-end USD-negtive flow signals are not as strong as was first calculated given the price action this week both in FX and equities but still keep an eye on action into the last 4pm London fix today. Data slate features further key US PCE numbers and Canadian GDP at 12.30 GMT plus US Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 14.00 GMT. Stage 1 of French elections this week-end casting a shadow.
Equities remain underpinned and adding to risk-on JPY supply albeit with sellers still lurking. WTI seeing good demand again over Middle East political concerns but capping at $82.25 after a hold of $81.00 this time with more two-way expected. Gold now finding a base at $2310-20 but failing at $2330 this time. Dip demand should remain but profit-takers/sellers still poised.
GBPUSD: Support coming in at 1.2620-30 this time after capping into 1.2670 amid the USD demand. Cross flows and large option interest still very much in play. EURGBP: Holding 0.8450-55 with EURUSD dip demand/option interest outweighing that of GBPUSD but capping at 0.8475 amid the BOE/ECB conjecture. EU politics still casting a shadow as we head into the French elections. GBPJPY: Holding 202.80-00 in latest retreats amid the general JPY selling but capping at 203.60 in the extended rally.
EURUSD: Capping at 1.0727 yesterday but large option interest yet again today keeping range contained with a hold of 1.0685. Cross flows in play still too. USDJPY: Support coming in at 160.30-50 amid the renewed USD demand and ongoing JPY supply. Capping at 161.25-30. MOF/BOJ intervention fears remain.
Traders - For more detailed analysis across a larger number of FX pairs including market order flows and options expiries email mike@mspfx.co.uk
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